arXiv:2601.01442stat.MLcs.LG2026-01

针对缺失观测的隐马尔可夫模型,提出高效贝叶斯采样新方法。

Fast Gibbs Sampling on Bayesian Hidden Markov Model with Missing Observations

  • 通过整合缺失观测和对应隐状态,构建折叠吉布斯采样器。
  • 每迭代有效样本量(ESS)更大,计算复杂度更低。
  • 在大量缺失数据时优势显著,适合高缺失率场景。

隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)是处理序列数据的常用统计模型。然而,真实数据中常存在缺失观测,给模型应用带来困难。现有EM算法和吉布斯采样器存在非凸性、计算复杂度高、混合慢等问题。本文提出一种折叠吉布斯采样器,通过同时积分掉缺失观测及其对应隐状态,高效从HMM后验中采样。该方法具备三大优势:首先,估计精度与现有方法相当;其次,每迭代有效样本量(ESS)更大,理论与数值上均可验证;第三,当缺失条目较多时,单次迭代计算复杂度显著低于其他方法,整体更快。实验基于数值模拟与真实数据分析表明,该算法在时间复杂度与采样效率(以ESS衡量)方面持续优于现有方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a widely-used statistical model for handling sequential data. However, the presence of missing observations in real-world datasets often complicates the application of the model. The EM algorithm and Gibbs samplers can be used to estimate the model, yet suffering from various problems including non-convexity, high computational complexity and slow mixing. In this paper, we propose a collapsed Gibbs sampler that efficiently samples from HMMs' posterior by integrating out both the missing observations and the corresponding latent states. The proposed sampler is fast due to its three advantages. First, it achieves an estimation accuracy that is comparable to existing methods. Second, it can produce a larger Effective Sample Size (ESS) per iteration, which can be justified theoretically and numerically. Third, when the number of missing entries is large, the sampler has a significant smaller computational complexity per iteration compared to other methods, thus is faster computationally. In summary, the proposed sampling algorithm is fast both computationally and theoretically and is particularly advantageous when there are a lot of missing entries. Finally, empirical evaluations based on numerical simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that the proposed algorithm consistently outperforms existing algorithms in terms of time complexity and sampling efficiency (measured in ESS).

隐马尔可夫贝叶斯推断缺失数据吉布斯采样

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