提出可解释的野火风险预测框架,提升加拿大西部火灾预警可信度。
Trustworthy Data-Driven Wildfire Risk Prediction and Understanding in Western Canada
- 基于多尺度时序建模融合多种驱动因素,显式量化预测不确定性。
- 2023-2024年测试中F1达0.90,PR-AUC达0.98,计算成本低。
- 通过SHAP分析揭示温湿因子对火灾风险的主导作用及年际差异。
近几十年来,加拿大西部野火活动加剧,造成重大社会经济与环境损失。准确预测野火风险受限于点火与蔓延的内在随机性,以及燃料、气象、气候变率、地形和人类活动之间的非线性交互,挑战纯数据驱动模型的可靠性与可解释性。本文提出一种可信的数据驱动野火风险预测框架,基于长序列、多尺度时间建模,整合异质驱动因子,显式量化预测不确定性,并支持过程级解释。在2023年和2024年创纪录火季期间对加拿大西部进行评估,该模型优于现有时序方法,实现F1分数0.90、PR-AUC 0.98,且计算成本低。不确定性感知分析揭示预测置信度具有结构化时空模式,模糊预测与时空决策边界关联更高不确定性。基于SHAP的解释提供了机制性理解,表明温度相关因子在两年中均主导野火风险,而湿度相关约束在2024年对空间和土地覆盖特异性对比影响更显著,相较2023年普遍高温干旱条件。数据与代码见https://github.com/SynUW/mmFire。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In recent decades, the intensification of wildfire activity in western Canada has resulted in substantial socio-economic and environmental losses. Accurate wildfire risk prediction is hindered by the intrinsic stochasticity of ignition and spread and by nonlinear interactions among fuel conditions, meteorology, climate variability, topography, and human activities, challenging the reliability and interpretability of purely data-driven models. We propose a trustworthy data-driven wildfire risk prediction framework based on long-sequence, multi-scale temporal modeling, which integrates heterogeneous drivers while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty and enabling process-level interpretation. Evaluated over western Canada during the record-breaking 2023 and 2024 fire seasons, the proposed model outperforms existing time-series approaches, achieving an F1 score of 0.90 and a PR-AUC of 0.98 with low computational cost. Uncertainty-aware analysis reveals structured spatial and seasonal patterns in predictive confidence, highlighting increased uncertainty associated with ambiguous predictions and spatiotemporal decision boundaries. SHAP-based interpretation provides mechanistic understanding of wildfire controls, showing that temperature-related drivers dominate wildfire risk in both years, while moisture-related constraints play a stronger role in shaping spatial and land-cover-specific contrasts in 2024 compared to the widespread hot and dry conditions of 2023. Data and code are available at https://github.com/SynUW/mmFire.
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