用可解释机器学习预测长效注射剂的药物释放,助力精准设计。
Predicting Early and Complete Drug Release from Long-Acting Injectables Using Explainable Machine Learning
- 构建时间无关的可解释模型,融合数据转换与特征重要性分析。
- 72小时释放预测相关性超0.65,释放类型分类F1达0.87。
- 揭示材料特性对早期与完全释放的影响,适合药物研发人员参考。
基于聚合物的长效注射剂(LAIs)通过可控释药改变了慢性病治疗方式,减少给药频率并延长疗效。实现可控释药需优化复杂的理化性质,机器学习(ML)可加速开发,建模复杂关系。然而,现有研究因缺乏针对LAI数据的定制建模与分析,难以揭示关键调控属性。本文提出一种新型数据转换与可解释机器学习方法,基于321种LAI制剂,预测24、48、72小时的早期释药,分类释药曲线类型,并预测完全释药行为。三个实验揭示材料特性对早期及完全释药的影响。72小时真实值与预测值相关性>0.65,释药类型分类F1-score达0.87。时间无关框架在预测延迟双相与三相曲线时优于现有时间依赖方法。Shapley加性解释揭示了材料特性在不同阶段的相对影响,填补了体外与机器学习研究中的多项空白。该方法为科学家优化LAI释药动力学提供了定量策略与建议。模型源码已公开。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Polymer-based long-acting injectables (LAIs) have transformed the treatment of chronic diseases by enabling controlled drug delivery, thus reducing dosing frequency and extending therapeutic duration. Achieving controlled drug release from LAIs requires extensive optimization of the complex underlying physicochemical properties. Machine learning (ML) can accelerate LAI development by modeling the complex relationships between LAI properties and drug release. However, recent ML studies have provided limited information on key properties that modulate drug release, due to the lack of custom modeling and analysis tailored to LAI data. This paper presents a novel data transformation and explainable ML approach to synthesize actionable information from 321 LAI formulations by predicting early drug release at 24, 48, and 72 hours, classification of release profile types, and prediction of complete release profiles. These three experiments investigate the contribution and control of LAI material characteristics in early and complete drug release profiles. A strong correlation (>0.65) is observed between the true and predicted drug release in 72 hours, while a 0.87 F1-score is obtained in classifying release profile types. A time-independent ML framework predicts delayed biphasic and triphasic curves with better performance than current time-dependent approaches. Shapley additive explanations reveal the relative influence of material characteristics during early and for complete release which fill several gaps in previous in-vitro and ML-based studies. The novel approach and findings can provide a quantitative strategy and recommendations for scientists to optimize the drug-release dynamics of LAI. The source code for the model implementation is publicly available.
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