AI相关岗位就业压力早在ChatGPT发布前就已上升，教育背景影响更大。
AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT
- 用失业保险数据追踪职业失业风险，发现2022年初已有上升趋势。
- 2021年后毕业生进入AI相关岗位比例持续下降，早于ChatGPT发布。
- 掌握AI课程的毕业生薪资更高、求职时间更短，显示教育价值。
公众讨论常将AI相关职业就业前景恶化归因于2022年底ChatGPT的发布。利用美国月度失业保险记录，我们测量了职业与地区特定的失业风险，发现AI暴露型职业的失业风险自2022年初开始上升，早于ChatGPT发布。分析数百万份LinkedIn个人资料后发现，2021年及之后毕业的群体进入AI暴露岗位的比例低于早期群体，差距在2022年底之前已显现。此外，从数百万份大学课程大纲中发现，修读更多AI相关课程的毕业生，在ChatGPT发布后获得更高起薪且求职时间更短。综合结果表明，就业压力变化源于生成式AI之前的因素，且与大模型相关的教育仍具持续价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more AI-exposed curricula had higher first-job pay and shorter job searches after ChatGPT. Together, these results point to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education.
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