arXiv:2601.02769stat.MLcs.LG2026-01AAAI被引 4

提出CIR方法,快速生成有保证覆盖的预测区间。

Fast Conformal Prediction using Conditional Interquantile Intervals

  • 用分位数区间估计分布,转换为紧凑预测区间
  • 相比传统方法,预测区间更窄且计算更快
  • 适合需要高效可靠预测的机器学习应用

我们提出一种名为分位数间回归(Conformal Interquantile Regression, CIR)的共形回归方法,能够高效构建具有保证覆盖概率的近似最小预测区间。CIR利用黑箱机器学习模型通过分位数区间估计输出分布,并将这些估计转化为紧凑的预测区间,实现近似条件覆盖。我们进一步提出CIR+(带更多比较的条件分位数间回归),通过基于宽度的选择规则优化分位数区间,获得更窄的预测区间,同时保持相当的覆盖性能,但计算时间略有增加。两种方法均解决了现有分布型共形预测方法的关键局限:相比共形化分位数回归,能更好处理偏斜分布;相比共形直方图回归,显著提升计算效率,无需构建直方图。在合成与真实数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法在预测准确性和计算效率之间实现了最优平衡。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We introduce Conformal Interquantile Regression (CIR), a conformal regression method that efficiently constructs near-minimal prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. CIR leverages black-box machine learning models to estimate outcome distributions through interquantile ranges, transforming these estimates into compact prediction intervals while achieving approximate conditional coverage. We further propose CIR+ (Conditional Interquantile Regression with More Comparison), which enhances CIR by incorporating a width-based selection rule for interquantile intervals. This refinement yields narrower prediction intervals while maintaining comparable coverage, though at the cost of slightly increased computational time. Both methods address key limitations of existing distributional conformal prediction approaches: they handle skewed distributions more effectively than Conformalized Quantile Regression, and they achieve substantially higher computational efficiency than Conformal Histogram Regression by eliminating the need for histogram construction. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our methods optimally balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing approaches.

共形预测预测区间机器学习

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