用域泛化提升钻井振动预测模型跨井泛化能力
Domain Generalization for Time Series: Enhancing Drilling Regression Models for Stick-Slip Index Prediction
- 采用ADG和IRM方法增强时间序列模型跨井适应性
- 严重事件检测率提升至60%,较基线提高40个百分点
- 适合需要跨井部署的工业级钻井监测系统
本文针对钻井过程中扭矩振动的连续指标——粘滑指数(SSI)预测问题,系统比较了多种时间序列领域的域泛化技术。通过在60秒、1Hz的表面钻井数据上训练回归模型,实现对钻头处扭振状态的预测,并在与训练井不同的新井中进行测试。研究采用网格搜索优化关键超参数,对比了对抗域泛化(ADG)、不变风险最小化(IRM)与基线模型的性能。结果表明,ADG和IRM模型分别相较基线提升10%和8%;最显著的是,严重事件检测率从基线的20%提升至60%。此外,将迁移学习应用于预训练模型可进一步提升性能。整体表明,域泛化方法在钻井场景中具有显著潜力,其中ADG表现最优。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper provides a comprehensive comparison of domain generalization techniques applied to time series data within a drilling context, focusing on the prediction of a continuous Stick-Slip Index (SSI), a critical metric for assessing torsional downhole vibrations at the drill bit. The study aims to develop a robust regression model that can generalize across domains by training on 60 second labeled sequences of 1 Hz surface drilling data to predict the SSI. The model is tested in wells that are different from those used during training. To fine-tune the model architecture, a grid search approach is employed to optimize key hyperparameters. A comparative analysis of the Adversarial Domain Generalization (ADG), Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) and baseline models is presented, along with an evaluation of the effectiveness of transfer learning (TL) in improving model performance. The ADG and IRM models achieve performance improvements of 10% and 8%, respectively, over the baseline model. Most importantly, severe events are detected 60% of the time, against 20% for the baseline model. Overall, the results indicate that both ADG and IRM models surpass the baseline, with the ADG model exhibiting a slight advantage over the IRM model. Additionally, applying TL to a pre-trained model further improves performance. Our findings demonstrate the potential of domain generalization approaches in drilling applications, with ADG emerging as the most effective approach.
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