arXiv:2601.02943cs.LGcs.MA2026-01KDD被引 1

MixTTE提升城市交通预测精度,适配大规模路网与实时变化路况。

MixTTE: Multi-Level Mixture-of-Experts for Scalable and Adaptive Travel Time Estimation

  • 融合路段级建模与路线级系统,用时空外部注意力捕捉全局交通动态。
  • 在真实数据集上相比7个基线模型显著降低预测误差,部署后服务准确率大幅提升。
  • 支持异构交通模式处理与实时增量学习,适合高动态城市交通场景。

精准的出行时间估计(TTE)对网约车平台至关重要,错误直接影响用户体验与运营效率。现有生产系统虽能有效建模整体路线依赖关系,却难以捕捉城市级交通动态和长尾场景,导致在大型城市路网中预测不可靠。本文提出 MixTTE,一种可扩展且自适应的框架,将路段级建模与工业级路线级 TTE 系统协同集成。具体地,设计了时空外部注意力模块,高效捕获百万级道路网络中的全局交通动态依赖;构建稳定图混合专家网络,应对异构交通模式同时保持推理效率;并提出异步增量学习策略,实现对动态交通分布变化的实时稳定适应。在真实数据集上的实验表明,MixTTE 显著优于七个基线模型。该模型已在滴滴平台部署,显著提升了 TTE 服务的准确性和稳定性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate Travel Time Estimation (TTE) is critical for ride-hailing platforms, where errors directly impact user experience and operational efficiency. While existing production systems excel at holistic route-level dependency modeling, they struggle to capture city-scale traffic dynamics and long-tail scenarios, leading to unreliable predictions in large urban networks. In this paper, we propose \model, a scalable and adaptive framework that synergistically integrates link-level modeling with industrial route-level TTE systems. Specifically, we propose a spatio-temporal external attention module to capture global traffic dynamic dependencies across million-scale road networks efficiently. Moreover, we construct a stabilized graph mixture-of-experts network to handle heterogeneous traffic patterns while maintaining inference efficiency. Furthermore, an asynchronous incremental learning strategy is tailored to enable real-time and stable adaptation to dynamic traffic distribution shifts. Experiments on real-world datasets validate MixTTE significantly reduces prediction errors compared to seven baselines. MixTTE has been deployed in DiDi, substantially improving the accuracy and stability of the TTE service.

交通预测混合专家时空建模实时学习

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。