arXiv:2601.02998cs.LGstat.ME2026-01

提出多分布鲁棒的预测集构建方法,保证跨分布覆盖率达预设水平。

Multi-Distribution Robust Conformal Prediction

  • 采用max-p聚合策略,统一保障多源分布下的预测覆盖率。
  • 实验显示预测集大小显著小于传统方法,接近单源最优表现。
  • 适用于公平性、分布外检测与多源学习等场景。

在许多公平性与分布鲁棒性问题中,我们拥有来自多个源分布的带标签数据,但测试数据可能来自任意一个或多个分布的混合。本文研究如何构建一个在多个异构分布上均保持一致有效性的置信预测集,确保无论测试样本来自哪个分布,其预测集覆盖率均不低于预设水平。首先提出一种max-p聚合方案,可在任意各分布对应的符合度得分下实现有限样本下的多分布覆盖率。通过分析若干效率优化问题,证明了该聚合方案的最优性与紧致性,并提出一种通用算法,在标准条件下学习能生成高效预测集的符合度得分。讨论了本框架与组别分布鲁棒优化、子群体漂移、公平性及多源学习的关系。在合成与真实数据实验中,该方法在所有分布上均保持有效的最坏情况覆盖率,同时预测集大小显著小于对单源符合度得分直接使用max-p聚合的结果,且可媲美采用常见标准符合度得分的单源预测集。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a conformal prediction set that is uniformly valid across multiple, heterogeneous distributions, in the sense that no matter which distribution the test point is from, the coverage of the prediction set is guaranteed to exceed a pre-specified level. We first propose a max-p aggregation scheme that delivers finite-sample, multi-distribution coverage given any conformity scores associated with each distribution. Upon studying several efficiency optimization programs subject to uniform coverage, we prove the optimality and tightness of our aggregation scheme, and propose a general algorithm to learn conformity scores that lead to efficient prediction sets after the aggregation under standard conditions. We discuss how our framework relates to group-wise distributionally robust optimization, sub-population shift, fairness, and multi-source learning. In synthetic and real-data experiments, our method delivers valid worst-case coverage across multiple distributions while greatly reducing the set size compared with naively applying max-p aggregation to single-source conformity scores, and can be comparable in size to single-source prediction sets with popular, standard conformity scores.

置信预测分布鲁棒公平性

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