arXiv:2601.03629cs.LG2026-01

在真实数据稀缺时,用模拟数据+相似性结构精准估算最短路径。

Learning Shortest Paths When Data is Scarce

  • 基于边相似性图,用拉普拉斯正则化估计模拟器偏差。
  • 实测数据少也能保证路径误差可控,且可验证路径接近最优。
  • 适合交通路由、数字孪生等缺乏实测数据的场景。

数字孪生等模拟器被广泛用于大规模网络的路径规划,但其输出存在系统性偏差,而真实测量成本高且稀少。本文研究一种随机最短路径问题:规划者拥有大量合成样本、有限真实观测,以及刻画边间行为相似性的边相似性结构。将模拟器到现实的差异建模为未知的、随相似性图平滑变化的边级偏差,采用拉普拉斯正则化最小二乘法进行估计。该方法在数据稀疏情况下仍能获得校准的边成本估计。我们建立了有限样本误差界,将估计误差转化为路径层面的次优性保证,并提出一个可计算的、数据驱动的证书来验证候选路径的近优性。针对无初始真实数据的冷启动场景,开发了基于偏差感知的主动学习算法,利用模拟器自适应选择需测量的边,直至达到预定精度。多个道路网络和交通图的数值实验进一步验证了方法的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Digital twins and other simulators are increasingly used to support routing decisions in large-scale networks. However, simulator outputs often exhibit systematic bias, while ground-truth measurements are costly and scarce. We study a stochastic shortest-path problem in which a planner has access to abundant synthetic samples, limited real-world observations, and an edge-similarity structure capturing expected behavioral similarity across links. We model the simulator-to-reality discrepancy as an unknown, edge-specific bias that varies smoothly over the similarity graph, and estimate it using Laplacian-regularized least squares. This approach yields calibrated edge cost estimates even in data-scarce regimes. We establish finite-sample error bounds, translate estimation error into path-level suboptimality guarantees, and propose a computable, data-driven certificate that verifies near-optimality of a candidate route. For cold-start settings without initial real data, we develop a bias-aware active learning algorithm that leverages the simulator and adaptively selects edges to measure until a prescribed accuracy is met. Numerical experiments on multiple road networks and traffic graphs further demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.

最短路径模拟器偏差校正主动学习

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