提出多尺度引导的雷达回波预测网络,提升降水短时预报精度与细节表现。
MFC-RFNet: A Multi-scale Guided Rectified Flow Network for Radar Sequence Prediction
- 融合多尺度通信与特征对齐,增强不同层级信息交互
- 在四个数据集上优于主流模型,长时预测仍保持高准确率
- 适合气象预报、灾害预警等需要高精度短临预测的场景
基于雷达回波序列的精准高分辨率降水短时预报对防灾减灾和经济规划至关重要,但面临复杂多尺度演变建模、帧间特征错位校正以及高效捕捉长程时空上下文却保持空间保真度等挑战。为此,本文提出多尺度特征通信修正流网络(MFC-RFNet),融合多尺度通信与引导特征融合。为增强多尺度融合并保留细粒度细节,引入小波引导跳跃连接(WGSC)以保持高频分量,设计特征通信模块(FCM)实现双向跨尺度交互。为校正帧间位移,提出条件引导空间变换融合(CGSTF),从条件回波学习空间变换以对齐浅层特征。主干采用修正流训练,学习近线性概率流轨迹,支持少步采样且保证稳定保真度。此外,在编码器尾部、瓶颈层及解码器首层部署轻量级Vision-RWKV(RWKV)块,以中等计算量捕捉低分辨率下的长程时空依赖。在四个公开数据集(SEVIR、MeteoNet、Shanghai、CIKM)上的评估显示,该方法持续优于强基线,于更高雨强阈值下呈现更清晰回波形态,并在更长预报时效保持良好性能。结果表明,修正流训练与感知尺度通信、空间对齐及频率感知融合的协同策略,为雷达短临预报提供了一种有效且鲁棒的解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate and high-resolution precipitation nowcasting from radar echo sequences is crucial for disaster mitigation and economic planning, yet it remains a significant challenge. Key difficulties include modeling complex multi-scale evolution, correcting inter-frame feature misalignment caused by displacement, and efficiently capturing long-range spatiotemporal context without sacrificing spatial fidelity. To address these issues, we present the Multi-scale Feature Communication Rectified Flow (RF) Network (MFC-RFNet), a generative framework that integrates multi-scale communication with guided feature fusion. To enhance multi-scale fusion while retaining fine detail, a Wavelet-Guided Skip Connection (WGSC) preserves high-frequency components, and a Feature Communication Module (FCM) promotes bidirectional cross-scale interaction. To correct inter-frame displacement, a Condition-Guided Spatial Transform Fusion (CGSTF) learns spatial transforms from conditioning echoes to align shallow features. The backbone adopts rectified flow training to learn near-linear probability-flow trajectories, enabling few-step sampling with stable fidelity. Additionally, lightweight Vision-RWKV (RWKV) blocks are placed at the encoder tail, the bottleneck, and the first decoder layer to capture long-range spatiotemporal dependencies at low spatial resolutions with moderate compute. Evaluations on four public datasets (SEVIR, MeteoNet, Shanghai, and CIKM) demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines, yielding clearer echo morphology at higher rain-rate thresholds and sustained skill at longer lead times. These results suggest that the proposed synergy of RF training with scale-aware communication, spatial alignment, and frequency-aware fusion presents an effective and robust approach for radar-based nowcasting.
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