arXiv:2601.03673cs.LGcs.AI2026-01被引 3

提出可区分两类不确定性的物理信息神经网络,提升设备寿命预测可靠性。

Disentangling Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Physics-Informed Neural Networks. Application to Insulation Material Degradation Prognostics

  • 用贝叶斯框架同时建模物理模型不确定和数据噪声不确定性
  • 在光伏电站实测数据上验证,预测精度与不确定性校准均优于基线方法
  • 适合需要风险评估的电力设备健康管理场景

物理信息神经网络(PINNs)将物理定律与数据融合,但在故障预测与健康管理系统(PHM)中的应用受限于不确定性量化能力不足。现有大多数基于PINN的预测方法为确定性或仅考虑认知不确定性,难以支持风险敏感决策。本文提出一种异方差贝叶斯物理信息神经网络(B-PINN)框架,联合建模认知不确定性和随机不确定性,实现时空绝缘材料老化估计的完整后验分布。该方法结合贝叶斯神经网络、物理残差约束与先验分布,在物理信息学习架构中实现概率推理。在变压器绝缘老化预测任务上进行验证,使用有限元热模型与太阳能电站现场测量数据,并与确定性PINN、基于丢弃的PINN(d-PINNs)及其它B-PINN变体对比。结果表明,所提B-PINN在预测精度和不确定性校准方面均优于对比方法。系统性敏感性分析进一步研究边界条件、初始条件与残差采样策略对准确率、校准性和泛化能力的影响,以及测量噪声对随机不确定性的影响。总体结果表明,贝叶斯物理信息学习可有效支持不确定性感知的预测与资产决策,在变压器资产管理中追踪两类不确定性来源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) provide a framework for integrating physical laws with data. However, their application to Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) remains constrained by the limited uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities. Most existing PINN-based prognostics approaches are deterministic or account only for epistemic uncertainty, limiting their suitability for risk-aware decision-making. This work introduces a heteroscedastic Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Network (B-PINN) framework that jointly models epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, yielding full predictive posteriors for spatiotemporal insulation material ageing estimation. The approach integrates Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) with physics-based residual enforcement and prior distributions, enabling probabilistic inference within a physics-informed learning architecture. The framework is evaluated on transformer insulation ageing application, validated with a finite-element thermal model and field measurements from a solar power plant, and benchmarked against deterministic PINNs, dropout-based PINNs (d-PINNs), and alternative B-PINN variants. Results show that the proposed B-PINN provides improved predictive accuracy and better-calibrated uncertainty estimates than competing approaches. A systematic sensitivity study further analyzes the impact of boundary-condition, initial-condition, and residual sampling strategies on accuracy, calibration, and generalization, and the influence of measurement noise on aleatoric uncertainty. Overall, the findings highlight the capability of Bayesian physics-informed learning to support uncertainty-aware prognostics and informed decision-making in transformer asset management by tracking aleatoric and epistemic sources of uncertainty.

不确定性量化物理信息网络设备寿命预测贝叶斯学习

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。