arXiv:2601.04245cs.MAcs.AI2026-01被引 4

用AI模拟市长决策,研究疫情政策效果

AI Agents as Policymakers in Simulated Epidemics

  • 让AI扮演市长,在模拟疫情中制定管控措施
  • 加入基础疫情知识后,决策更稳定准确
  • 适合研究社会系统决策与政策设计

AI代理正被用于执行特定任务,但其作为决策行为计算模型的潜力尚未充分探索。我们开发了一个生成式AI代理,用于研究疫情中的重复性政策决策,将该代理(以城市市长身份)置于模拟的SEIR环境中。每周,代理接收更新的流行病学信息,评估形势变化,并设定商业限制等级。代理配备动态记忆,按事件新旧加权,并在不同复杂度环境下的单代理和集成代理设置中进行评估。在各种场景中,代理表现出类似人类的反应行为:病例上升时收紧限制,风险下降时放松。关键的是,提供代理简要的系统级疫情动态知识(突出疾病传播与行为反应之间的反馈关系),显著提升了决策质量与稳定性。结果表明,基于理论的提示可塑造AI代理的涌现政策行为。这说明,当置于结构化环境并接受少量领域理论指导时,生成式AI代理可成为研究复杂社会系统中决策与政策设计的强大计算模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

AI agents are increasingly deployed as quasi-autonomous systems for specialized tasks, yet their potential as computational models of decision-making remains underexplored. We develop a generative AI agent to study repetitive policy decisions during an epidemic, embedding the agent, prompted to act as a city mayor, within a simulated SEIR environment. Each week, the agent receives updated epidemiological information, evaluates the evolving situation, and sets business restriction levels. The agent is equipped with a dynamic memory that weights past events by recency and is evaluated in both single- and ensemble-agent settings across environments of varying complexity. Across scenarios, the agent exhibits human-like reactive behavior, tightening restrictions in response to rising cases and relaxing them as risk declines. Crucially, providing the agent with brief systems-level knowledge of epidemic dynamics, highlighting feedbacks between disease spread and behavioral responses, substantially improves decision quality and stability. The results illustrate how theory-informed prompting can shape emergent policy behavior in AI agents. These findings demonstrate that generative AI agents, when situated in structured environments and guided by minimal domain theory, can serve as powerful computational models for studying decision-making and policy design in complex social systems.

AI代理政策模拟疫情决策生成模型

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