arXiv:2601.04741cs.LGcs.AI2026-01KDD被引 1

实时预测设备故障时间,动态适应传感器数据变化

Fast Mining and Dynamic Time-to-Event Prediction over Multi-sensor Data Streams

  • 按数据模式演变划分阶段,为每阶段训练独立预测模型
  • 在真实数据集上准确率优于现有方法,计算耗时显著降低
  • 适合工业设备监测与实时故障预警场景

针对机器产生的实时多传感器数据流,如何持续预测设备故障发生时间?本文提出TimeCast框架,通过识别数据中随时间演化的不同模式(即阶段),为每个阶段建立独立模型,实现对动态变化的自适应预测。该方法具备三大特性:(a) 动态性——能捕捉传感器间时变依赖关系并根据模式转移调整预测;(b) 实用性——发现有意义的演化阶段,提升预测性能;(c) 可扩展性——算法复杂度线性于输入规模,支持在线模型更新。在真实数据集上的大量实验表明,TimeCast在预测精度上优于当前最优方法,同时大幅减少计算时间。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Given real-time sensor data streams obtained from machines, how can we continuously predict when a machine failure will occur? This work aims to continuously forecast the timing of future events by analyzing multi-sensor data streams. A key characteristic of real-world data streams is their dynamic nature, where the underlying patterns evolve over time. To address this, we present TimeCast, a dynamic prediction framework designed to adapt to these changes and provide accurate, real-time predictions of future event time. Our proposed method has the following properties: (a) Dynamic: it identifies the distinct time-evolving patterns (i.e., stages) and learns individual models for each, enabling us to make adaptive predictions based on pattern shifts. (b) Practical: it finds meaningful stages that capture time-varying interdependencies between multiple sensors and improve prediction performance; (c) Scalable: our algorithm scales linearly with the input size and enables online model updates on data streams. Extensive experiments on real datasets demonstrate that TimeCast provides higher prediction accuracy than state-of-the-art methods while finding dynamic changes in data streams with a great reduction in computational time.

时间预测多传感器动态建模工业物联网

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