arXiv:2601.05194cs.LG2026-01

用数据驱动方法优化跌倒风险评估,提升预测准确率且保持临床可解释性。

An interpretable data-driven approach to optimizing clinical fall risk assessment

  • 基于约束评分优化重设评分权重,保留原有工具结构与阈值。
  • 模型AUC-ROC达0.91,较原工具提升5个百分点,每周多识别35名高风险患者。
  • 兼顾临床可解释性,适合医疗系统用于改进跌倒预防策略。

本研究旨在通过数据驱动建模,使约翰斯·霍普金斯跌倒风险评估工具(JHFRAT)的跌倒风险预测更符合临床意义指标。分析了2022年3月至2023年10月期间约翰斯·霍普金斯医疗系统三家医院的54,209例住院患者数据,其中20,208例为高跌倒风险,13,941例为低跌倒风险。采用约束评分优化(CSO)模型重设JHFRAT评分权重,保持其加性结构和临床阈值不变。校准指调整项目权重以更一致地排序风险标签,不改变工具形式或部署流程。改进后模型的AUC-ROC达0.91,优于原工具的0.86,相当于每周在系统内多保护35名高风险患者。无论是否包含电子病历变量,CSO表现稳定;尽管黑箱模型XGBoost性能略优(AUC-ROC=0.94),但CSO对风险标签变化更具鲁棒性。该证据基础方法为医疗机构系统化提升住院患者跌倒预防与安全管理水平提供支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this study, we aim to better align fall risk prediction from the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) with additional clinically meaningful measures via a data-driven modelling approach. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of 54,209 inpatient admissions from three Johns Hopkins Health System hospitals between March 2022 and October 2023. A total of 20,208 admissions were included as high fall risk encounters, and 13,941 were included as low fall risk encounters. To incorporate clinical knowledge and maintain interpretability, we employed constrained score optimization (CSO) models to reweight the JHFRAT scoring weights, while preserving its additive structure and clinical thresholds. Recalibration refers to adjusting item weights so that the resulting score can order encounters more consistently by the study's risk labels, and without changing the tool's form factor or deployment workflow. The model demonstrated significant improvements in predictive performance over the current JHFRAT (CSO AUC-ROC=0.91, JHFRAT AUC-ROC=0.86). This performance improvement translates to protecting an additional 35 high-risk patients per week across the Johns Hopkins Health System. The constrained score optimization models performed similarly with and without the EHR variables. Although the benchmark black-box model (XGBoost), improves upon the performance metrics of the knowledge-based constrained logistic regression (AUC-ROC=0.94), the CSO demonstrates more robustness to variations in risk labeling. This evidence-based approach provides a robust foundation for health systems to systematically enhance inpatient fall prevention protocols and patient safety using data-driven optimization techniques, contributing to improved risk assessment and resource allocation in healthcare settings.

风险评估可解释性医疗数据评分优化

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