arXiv:2601.05355stat.MLcs.AI2026-01

用贝叶斯生成模型实现任意条件推断,一次训练全场景可用。

An AI-powered Bayesian Generative Modeling Approach for Arbitrary Conditional Inference

  • 基于随机迭代贝叶斯更新学习联合分布,支持任意变量划分的条件推断。
  • 单个模型在多个条件任务上表现优于传统方法,且提供可信的不确定性估计。
  • 适合需要灵活条件推理与可靠置信区间的研究者,如医疗建模、金融预测。

现代数据分析日益需要灵活的条件推断 P(X_B | X_A),其中 (X_A, X_B) 是观测变量 X 的任意划分。现有方法或受限于固定条件结构,或对训练时条件掩码分布敏感。为此,我们提出贝叶斯生成建模(BGM),一种统一的任意条件推断框架。BGM通过随机迭代贝叶斯更新算法学习变量 X 的生成模型,不断更新模型参数与隐变量直至收敛。训练完成后,无需重训即可获得任意条件分布。实证表明,BGM在后验预测区间上取得更优预测性能,证明单一模型可作为通用条件预测引擎,并具备严格的不确定性量化能力。我们提供了该随机迭代算法的收敛性、统计一致性和条件风险界等理论保证。BGM结合现代AI与贝叶斯原则,为现代数据科学中的多种应用提供有力工具。代码与文档见 https://github.com/liuq-lab/bayesgm 及 https://bayesgm.readthedocs.io。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern data analysis increasingly requires flexible conditional inference P(X_B | X_A) where (X_A, X_B) is an arbitrary partition of observed variable X. Existing approaches are either restricted to a fixed conditioning structure or depend strongly on the distribution of conditioning masks during training. To address these limitations, we introduce Bayesian generative modeling (BGM), a unified framework for arbitrary conditional inference. BGM learns a generative model of X via a stochastic iterative Bayesian updating algorithm in which model parameters and latent variables are updated until convergence. Once trained, any conditional distribution can be obtained without retraining. Empirically, BGM achieves superior predictive performance with posterior predictive intervals, demonstrating that a single learned model can serve as a universal engine for conditional prediction with principled uncertainty quantification. We provide theoretical guarantees for convergence of the stochastic iterative algorithm, statistical consistency, and conditional risk bounds. The proposed BGM framework leverages modern AI to capture complex relationships among variables while adhering to Bayesian principles, offering a promising approach for a wide range of applications in modern data science. Code for BGM is available at https://github.com/liuq-lab/bayesgm. Document of BGM is available at https://bayesgm.readthedocs.io.

贝叶斯建模条件推断生成模型不确定性量化

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。