arXiv:2601.05521cs.LG2026-01

用统一模型预测多城市交通事故,提升跨城安全管理水平。

Toward an Integrated Cross-Urban Accident Prevention System: A Multi-Task Spatial-Temporal Learning Framework for Urban Safety Management

  • 将事故预测设为多任务学习,融合时空与语义信息
  • 在纽约和芝加哥数据上实现误差低6%、召回率高8%
  • 抗噪声能力强,适合真实复杂城市环境

跨城市事故预防系统因数据异质性、报告不一致及事故数据固有的聚集性、稀疏性、周期性和噪声特征而难以构建。这些数据特性与碎片化治理、标准不一共同阻碍了集成化跨城预防框架的发展。为此,我们提出 MLA-STNet 框架,将事故风险预测建模为多城市多任务学习问题。该框架包含两个互补模块:(i) 空间-时间地理马比-注意力(STG-MA),抑制不稳定的时空波动并增强长程时间依赖;(ii) 空间-时间语义马比-注意力(STS-MA),通过共享参数设计,在联合训练所有城市的同时保留各城市独立的语义表征空间。我们在纽约市与芝加哥市的真实数据上,针对全天与高频事故时段两种预测场景,进行了75次实验验证。相比现有最优基线,MLA-STNet 最多降低6%的RMSE,提升8%的召回率与5%的MAP,且在50%输入噪声下性能波动小于1%。结果表明,MLA-STNet 能有效整合异构城市数据,构建可扩展、鲁棒、可解释的跨城事故预防系统,推动协同化、数据驱动的城市安全管理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The development of a cross-city accident prevention system is particularly challenging due to the heterogeneity, inconsistent reporting, and inherently clustered, sparse, cyclical, and noisy nature of urban accident data. These intrinsic data properties, combined with fragmented governance and incompatible reporting standards, have long hindered the creation of an integrated, cross-city accident prevention framework. To address this gap, we propose the Mamba Local-ttention Spatial-Temporal Network MLA-STNet, a unified system that formulates accident risk prediction as a multi-task learning problem across multiple cities. MLA-STNet integrates two complementary modules: (i)the Spatio-Temporal Geographical Mamba-Attention (STG-MA), which suppresses unstable spatio-temporal fluctuations and strengthens long-range temporal dependencies; and (ii) the Spatio-Temporal Semantic Mamba-Attention (STS-MA), which mitigates cross-city heterogeneity through a shared-parameter design that jointly trains all cities while preserving individual semantic representation spaces. We validate the proposed framework through 75 experiments under two forecasting scenarios, full-day and high-frequency accident periods, using real-world datasets from New York City and Chicago. Compared with the state-of-the-art baselines, MLA-STNet achieves up to 6% lower RMSE, 8% higher Recall, and 5% higher MAP, while maintaining less than 1% performance variation under 50% input noise. These results demonstrate that MLA-STNet effectively unifies heterogeneous urban datasets within a scalable, robust, and interpretable Cross-City Accident Prevention System, paving the way for coordinated and data-driven urban safety management.

事故预测多城市时空模型

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