arXiv:2601.05975q-fin.TRcs.LG2026-01被引 1

用深度学习构建抗风险的宏观投资组合,表现远超传统策略。

DeePM: Regime-Robust Deep Learning for Systematic Macro Portfolio Management

  • 通过因果筛选机制解决信息不同步问题,强化经济因果关系学习。
  • 在2010-2025年50个期货品种上,收益是趋势策略的两倍,且抗波动性强。
  • 适合追求稳健高回报、关注宏观经济因子的量化投资者。

我们提出DeePM(深度投资组合管理者),一种端到端训练的结构化深度学习模型,旨在最大化鲁棒的风险调整效用。该模型解决了金融学习中的三大挑战:(1) 通过有向延迟(因果筛)机制解决异步‘锯齿滤波’问题,优先学习因果响应而非信息时效性;(2) 借助宏观经济图先验,依据经济基本原理正则化跨资产依赖关系,缓解低信噪比问题;(3) 优化分布鲁棒目标,以平滑最差窗口惩罚作为熵值风险(EVaR)的可微代理,提升在最恶劣历史子周期的表现。在2010-2025年大规模回测中,使用50个多元化期货品种与真实交易成本,DeePM实现的净风险调整回报约为经典趋势策略和被动基准的两倍,仅依赖日收盘价。此外,其性能优于当前最优的动量Transformer架构约50%。模型在2010年代‘CTA寒冬’及2020年后波动率剧变中表现出结构性韧性,持续应对疫情、通胀冲击与长期高利率环境。消融实验表明,严格滞后横截面注意力、图先验、交易成本合理建模与鲁棒极小极大优化是泛化能力的关键。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose DeePM (Deep Portfolio Manager), a structured deep-learning macro portfolio manager trained end-to-end to maximize a robust, risk-adjusted utility. DeePM addresses three fundamental challenges in financial learning: (1) it resolves the asynchronous "ragged filtration" problem via a Directed Delay (Causal Sieve) mechanism that prioritizes causal impulse-response learning over information freshness; (2) it combats low signal-to-noise ratios via a Macroeconomic Graph Prior, regularizing cross-asset dependence according to economic first principles; and (3) it optimizes a distributionally robust objective where a smooth worst-window penalty serves as a differentiable proxy for Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR) - a window-robust utility encouraging strong performance in the most adverse historical subperiods. In large-scale backtests from 2010-2025 on 50 diversified futures with highly realistic transaction costs, DeePM attains net risk-adjusted returns that are roughly twice those of classical trend-following strategies and passive benchmarks, solely using daily closing prices. Furthermore, DeePM improves upon the state-of-the-art Momentum Transformer architecture by roughly fifty percent. The model demonstrates structural resilience across the 2010s "CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) Winter" and the post-2020 volatility regime shift, maintaining consistent performance through the pandemic, inflation shocks, and the subsequent higher-for-longer environment. Ablation studies confirm that strictly lagged cross-sectional attention, graph prior, principled treatment of transaction costs, and robust minimax optimization are the primary drivers of this generalization capability.

量化投资深度学习宏观策略风险管理

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