通过轨迹波动模式区分随机与确定性系统,无需假设模型。
Detecting Stochasticity in Discrete Signals via Nonparametric Excursion Theorem
- 基于连续半鞅的穿越定理,利用小尺度波动特征判断信号性质。
- 实测穿越次数与理论值比值的斜率偏差可准确识别扩散行为。
- 适用于无模型假设的复杂系统,如混沌、噪声系统和非线性扩散。
我们提出一种实用框架,仅凭单条离散时间序列即可区分扩散型随机过程与确定性信号。方法基于经典半鞅的穿越与交叉定理,将幅度不低于ε的穿越次数$N_$与过程的二次变差$[X]_T$关联。该标度律对所有具有有限二次变差的连续半鞅(包括非线性或状态依赖波动的Ito扩散)普遍成立,但在确定性系统中则显著失效,从而提供理论上可验证的区分方法。我们构建了一个鲁棒的数据驱动扩散检验:比较经验穿越数与理论期望,得到比率$K()=N_{}^{emp}/N_{}^{theory}$,并通过其对数-对数斜率偏差来衡量$\varepsilon^{-2}$规律,实现扩散类与非扩散类的分类。在典型随机系统、周期与混沌映射、含白噪声系统及随机Duffing系统上进行了验证。方法为非参数、无模型,仅依赖连续半鞅的小尺度普适结构。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We develop a practical framework for distinguishing diffusive stochastic processes from deterministic signals using only a single discrete time series. Our approach is based on classical excursion and crossing theorems for continuous semimartingales, which correlates number $N_\varepsilon$ of excursions of magnitude at least $\varepsilon$ with the quadratic variation $[X]_T$ of the process. The scaling law holds universally for all continuous semimartingales with finite quadratic variation, including general Ito diffusions with nonlinear or state-dependent volatility, but fails sharply for deterministic systems -- thereby providing a theoretically-certfied method of distinguishing between these dynamics, as opposed to the subjective entropy or recurrence based state of the art methods. We construct a robust data-driven diffusion test. The method compares the empirical excursion counts against the theoretical expectation. The resulting ratio $K(\varepsilon)=N_{\varepsilon}^{\mathrm{emp}}/N_{\varepsilon}^{\mathrm{theory}}$ is then summarized by a log-log slope deviation measuring the $\varepsilon^{-2}$ law that provides a classification into diffusion-like or not. We demonstrate the method on canonical stochastic systems, some periodic and chaotic maps and systems with additive white noise, as well as the stochastic Duffing system. The approach is nonparametric, model-free, and relies only on the universal small-scale structure of continuous semimartingales.
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