融合多模态数据与因果学习,实现跨人群心血管风险精准预测。
Causal and Federated Multimodal Learning for Cardiovascular Risk Prediction under Heterogeneous Populations
- 用跨模态变换器+图神经网络+因果表征学习统一建模多种医学数据
- 在不同人群间保持预测公平性,跨队列表现稳定且误差低
- 支持联邦学习与可解释性,适合医疗隐私敏感场景
心血管疾病(CVD)仍是全球主要死因,亟需能处理多样高维生物医学信号、兼具可解释性与隐私保护的预测模型。本文提出一种集成跨模态变换器、图神经网络与因果表征学习的多模态框架,融合基因变异、心脏MRI、心电波形、可穿戴设备流数据及结构化电子健康记录(EHR),预测个体化CVD风险,并在不同临床亚群体间施加因果不变性约束。为保障透明性,采用SHAP特征归因、反事实解释与因果潜在对齐技术揭示可理解的风险因子。模型部署于联邦隐私保护优化协议中,建立分布偏移下的收敛性、校准性与不确定性量化规则。基于大规模生物银行与多机构数据集的实验表明,该方法具备优异判别力与鲁棒性,在不同人口统计学分层与临床队列中均表现均衡。本研究为面向人群层面的临床可信、可解释、隐私尊重的心血管风险预测提供了系统性路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to be the major cause of death globally, calling for predictive models that not only handle diverse and high-dimensional biomedical signals but also maintain interpretability and privacy. We create a single multimodal learning framework that integrates cross modal transformers with graph neural networks and causal representation learning to measure personalized CVD risk. The model combines genomic variation, cardiac MRI, ECG waveforms, wearable streams, and structured EHR data to predict risk while also implementing causal invariance constraints across different clinical subpopulations. To maintain transparency, we employ SHAP based feature attribution, counterfactual explanations and causal latent alignment for understandable risk factors. Besides, we position the design in a federated, privacy, preserving optimization protocol and establish rules for convergence, calibration and uncertainty quantification under distributional shift. Experimental studies based on large-scale biobank and multi institutional datasets reveal state discrimination and robustness, exhibiting fair performance across demographic strata and clinically distinct cohorts. This study paves the way for a principled approach to clinically trustworthy, interpretable and privacy respecting CVD prediction at the population level.
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