arXiv:2601.06530cs.LGcs.AI2026-01AAAI被引 2

通过多频域联合建模,提升电网碳强度预测精度。

Improving Day-Ahead Grid Carbon Intensity Forecasting by Joint Modeling of Local-Temporal and Cross-Variable Dependencies Across Different Frequencies

  • 用多尺度小波卷积提取局部时序依赖
  • 在多频域捕捉变量间动态关系变化
  • 适合电力系统减排与需求侧管理场景

准确预测电网碳强度因子(CIF)对现代电力系统的需求侧管理与减排至关重要。由于涉及多个相关时间序列,CIF预测通常被建模为多变量时间序列预测问题。尽管深度学习方法取得进展,仍难以捕捉细粒度的局部时序依赖、动态高阶变量间依赖及复杂的多频模式。为此,我们提出一种新模型,包含两个并行模块:1)通过多尺度小波卷积核对不同长度重叠片段进行处理,增强多频域下的局部时序依赖提取;2)在多频域下建模变量间关系的演化,捕捉动态跨变量依赖。在澳大利亚四个具有不同可再生能源渗透率的电力市场上的实验表明,该方法优于现有最优模型。消融实验证明两个模块具有互补优势。模型具备内置可解释性,在案例研究中能自适应聚焦关键变量与时间区间,尤其在突发事件中表现突出。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate forecasting of the grid carbon intensity factor (CIF) is critical for enabling demand-side management and reducing emissions in modern electricity systems. Leveraging multiple interrelated time series, CIF prediction is typically formulated as a multivariate time series forecasting problem. Despite advances in deep learning-based methods, it remains challenging to capture the fine-grained local-temporal dependencies, dynamic higher-order cross-variable dependencies, and complex multi-frequency patterns for CIF forecasting. To address these issues, we propose a novel model that integrates two parallel modules: 1) one enhances the extraction of local-temporal dependencies under multi-frequency by applying multiple wavelet-based convolutional kernels to overlapping patches of varying lengths; 2) the other captures dynamic cross-variable dependencies under multi-frequency to model how inter-variable relationships evolve across the time-frequency domain. Evaluations on four representative electricity markets from Australia, featuring varying levels of renewable penetration, demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art models. An ablation study further validates the complementary benefits of the two proposed modules. Designed with built-in interpretability, the proposed model also enables better understanding of its predictive behavior, as shown in a case study where it adaptively shifts attention to relevant variables and time intervals during a disruptive event.

碳强度预测多变量时序小波网络

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