用异构图模型提前预测学生学业成败,准确率超传统方法。
Predicting Student Success with Heterogeneous Graph Deep Learning and Machine Learning Models
- 构建异构图结构,融合动态评估数据与多类实体特征。
- 学期初7%时达68.6%验证F1,期末接近89.5%。
- 适合教育机构做早期预警,尤其关注动态数据建模。
早期识别学生学业成功对及时干预、降低辍学率和促进按时毕业至关重要。在教育场景中,基于AI的系统因具备先进分析能力而成为预测学生表现的关键工具。然而,有效利用多样化的学生数据以揭示潜在复杂模式仍是挑战。以往研究虽已探索该领域,但动态数据特征与多类别实体的潜力尚未被充分挖掘。为此,我们提出一个框架,结合异构图深度学习模型提升早期与持续的学生表现预测,并以传统机器学习算法作为对比。该方法采用图元路径结构并引入动态评估特征,逐步影响学生成功预测任务。在开放大学学习分析(OULA)数据集上的实验表明,仅完成学期7%时即达到68.6%的验证F1分数,学期末最高达89.5%。相比顶尖机器学习模型,本方法在学期初期7%阶段提升4.7%验证F1,凸显动态特征与异构图表示在学生成功预测中的价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Early identification of student success is crucial for enabling timely interventions, reducing dropout rates, and promoting on time graduation. In educational settings, AI powered systems have become essential for predicting student performance due to their advanced analytical capabilities. However, effectively leveraging diverse student data to uncover latent and complex patterns remains a key challenge. While prior studies have explored this area, the potential of dynamic data features and multi category entities has been largely overlooked. To address this gap, we propose a framework that integrates heterogeneous graph deep learning models to enhance early and continuous student performance prediction, using traditional machine learning algorithms for comparison. Our approach employs a graph metapath structure and incorporates dynamic assessment features, which progressively influence the student success prediction task. Experiments on the Open University Learning Analytics (OULA) dataset demonstrate promising results, achieving a 68.6% validation F1 score with only 7% of the semester completed, and reaching up to 89.5% near the semester's end. Our approach outperforms top machine learning models by 4.7% in validation F1 score during the critical early 7% of the semester, underscoring the value of dynamic features and heterogeneous graph representations in student success prediction.
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