arXiv:2601.07250cs.LGcs.AI2026-01

提出DDT模型,提升能源时间序列预测精度与鲁棒性。

DDT: A Dual-Masking Dual-Expert Transformer for Energy Time-Series Forecasting

  • 双掩码机制融合因果约束与动态注意力,聚焦关键历史信息。
  • 双专家结构并行建模时序与变量关联,动态门控融合效果更优。
  • 在7个能源数据集上全面超越现有方法,适合高精度预测场景。

精准的能源时间序列预测对保障电网稳定和促进可再生能源接入至关重要,但面临复杂时序依赖和多源异构数据的挑战。为此,我们提出DDT——一种新颖且鲁棒的深度学习框架,用于高精度时间序列预测。核心创新包括:1)设计双掩码机制,协同结合严格因果掩码与数据驱动的动态掩码,确保理论因果一致性的同时,自适应聚焦最显著的历史信息,克服传统掩码方法的僵化问题;2)采用双专家架构,将时序动态建模与跨变量相关性建模解耦为并行专业化路径,并通过动态门控融合模块智能整合。我们在7个具有挑战性的能源基准数据集(包括ETTh、Electricity、Solar)上进行了广泛实验,结果表明DDT在所有预测时长上均持续优于强基线模型,建立了该任务的新基准。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate energy time-series forecasting is crucial for ensuring grid stability and promoting the integration of renewable energy, yet it faces significant challenges from complex temporal dependencies and the heterogeneity of multi-source data. To address these issues, we propose DDT, a novel and robust deep learning framework for high-precision time-series forecasting. At its core, DDT introduces two key innovations. First, we design a dual-masking mechanism that synergistically combines a strict causal mask with a data-driven dynamic mask. This novel design ensures theoretical causal consistency while adaptively focusing on the most salient historical information, overcoming the rigidity of traditional masking techniques. Second, our architecture features a dual-expert system that decouples the modeling of temporal dynamics and cross-variable correlations into parallel, specialized pathways, which are then intelligently integrated through a dynamic gated fusion module. We conducted extensive experiments on 7 challenging energy benchmark datasets, including ETTh, Electricity, and Solar. The results demonstrate that DDT consistently outperforms strong state-of-the-art baselines across all prediction horizons, establishing a new benchmark for the task.

时间序列预测能源预测Transformer双专家

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