用物理约束提升多步时间序列预测精度,兼顾数据与机理。
Dual-Level Models for Physics-Informed Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting
- 输入用LSTM融合概率状态模型预测,输出用物理神经网络生成
- 相比传统方法,预测误差降低,对动态环境适应性更强
- 适合需要高可靠性的工业过程控制与优化场景
本文提出一种面向动力系统多步预测的双层策略,结合概率输入预测与物理信息输出推断。针对机理模型不完整和纯数据驱动模型在动态环境中泛化能力差的问题,第一层采用将LSTM嵌入概率状态转移模型(STM)的混合方法预测输入变量;第二层将随机预测的输入依次输入物理信息神经网络(PINN),实现多步输出预测。实验表明,该混合输入模型在对数似然上优于传统STM,均方误差(MSE)更低;基于该输入预测的PINN在多个测试案例中,其MSE和对数似然均优于纯数据驱动模型,展现出更强的泛化能力与预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper develops an approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems by integrating probabilistic input forecasting with physics-informed output prediction. Accurate multi-step forecasting of time series systems is important for the automatic control and optimization of physical processes, enabling more precise decision-making. While mechanistic-based and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches have been employed for time series forecasting, they face significant limitations. Incomplete knowledge of process mathematical models limits mechanistic-based direct employment, while purely data-driven ML models struggle with dynamic environments, leading to poor generalization. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a dual-level strategy for physics-informed forecasting of dynamical systems. On the first level, input variables are forecast using a hybrid method that integrates a long short-term memory (LSTM) network into probabilistic state transition models (STMs). On the second level, these stochastically predicted inputs are sequentially fed into a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to generate multi-step output predictions. The experimental results of the paper demonstrate that the hybrid input forecasting models achieve a higher log-likelihood and lower mean squared errors (MSE) compared to conventional STMs. Furthermore, the PINNs driven by the input forecasting models outperform their purely data-driven counterparts in terms of MSE and log-likelihood, exhibiting stronger generalization and forecasting performance across multiple test cases.
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