DT-ICU通过多模态数据实时预测重症患者风险,兼顾准确性与可解释性。
DT-ICU: Towards Explainable Digital Twins for ICU Patient Monitoring via Multi-Modal and Multi-Task Iterative Inference
- 融合动态生命体征与静态病患信息,支持住院全程持续风险评估
- 在MIMIC-IV数据集上优于主流基线模型,入院后快速实现有效区分
- 可解释性强,揭示各数据源(如治疗、生理响应)的贡献权重
我们提出DT-ICU,一个用于重症监护室连续风险评估的多模态数字孪生框架。该框架将可变长度临床时间序列与静态患者信息统一整合至多任务架构中,使预测随患者住院期间新观测数据的积累而持续更新。在大型公开数据集MIMIC-IV上的评估显示,无论何种评估设置,DT-ICU均持续优于现有基线模型。测试时长分析表明,入院后不久即实现有意义的风险区分,更长的观察窗口进一步提升了在高度不平衡队列中对高危患者的排序能力。通过系统性模态消融实验,我们发现模型合理地依赖于干预措施、生理响应观测及上下文信息。这些分析为多模态信号融合机制以及敏感性与精确性之间的权衡提供了可解释洞察。综合结果表明,DT-ICU能提供准确、时间鲁棒且可解释的预测,具备作为实用数字孪生框架在危重症监测中应用的潜力。代码与训练权重已开源:https://github.com/GUO-W/DT-ICU-release。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce DT-ICU, a multimodal digital twin framework for continuous risk estimation in intensive care. DT-ICU integrates variable-length clinical time series with static patient information in a unified multitask architecture, enabling predictions to be updated as new observations accumulate over the ICU stay. We evaluate DT-ICU on the large, publicly available MIMIC-IV dataset, where it consistently outperforms established baseline models under different evaluation settings. Our test-length analysis shows that meaningful discrimination is achieved shortly after admission, while longer observation windows further improve the ranking of high-risk patients in highly imbalanced cohorts. To examine how the model leverages heterogeneous data sources, we perform systematic modality ablations, revealing that the model learnt a reasonable structured reliance on interventions, physiological response observations, and contextual information. These analyses provide interpretable insights into how multimodal signals are combined and how trade-offs between sensitivity and precision emerge. Together, these results demonstrate that DT-ICU delivers accurate, temporally robust, and interpretable predictions, supporting its potential as a practical digital twin framework for continuous patient monitoring in critical care. The source code and trained model weights for DT-ICU are publicly available at https://github.com/GUO-W/DT-ICU-release.
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