DriftGuard自动检测供应链预测中的概念漂移并精准修复,提升预测准确率。
DriftGuard: A Hierarchical Framework for Concept Drift Detection and Remediation in Supply Chain Forecasting
- 融合四种检测方法+分层传播分析,定位漂移源头。
- 97.8%召回率,4.2天内发现漂移,投资回报率达417%。
- 适合需要实时调整预测模型的零售与供应链管理者。
供应链预测模型随现实变化而退化,促销、消费偏好和供应中断等因素导致概念漂移,引发缺货或库存积压却无预警。现有工业实践依赖3-6个月人工监控和定期重训,浪费资源且错过快速漂移。学术方法多仅关注检测,忽视诊断与修复,且忽略供应链数据的层次结构。我们提出DriftGuard,一个五模块全流程框架:集成误差监控、统计检验、自编码器异常检测与累积和(CUSUM)变点分析,结合分层传播分析精确定位漂移发生的产品线;通过SHAP解释根因,并采用成本感知重训策略仅更新受影响模型。在包含超3万条时间序列的M5零售数据集上评估,DriftGuard实现97.8%检测召回率,4.2天内响应漂移,通过精准修复带来最高417%的投资回报。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Supply chain forecasting models degrade over time as real-world conditions change. Promotions shift, consumer preferences evolve, and supply disruptions alter demand patterns, causing what is known as concept drift. This silent degradation leads to stockouts or excess inventory without triggering any system warnings. Current industry practice relies on manual monitoring and scheduled retraining every 3-6 months, which wastes computational resources during stable periods while missing rapid drift events. Existing academic methods focus narrowly on drift detection without addressing diagnosis or remediation, and they ignore the hierarchical structure inherent in supply chain data. What retailers need is an end-to-end system that detects drift early, explains its root causes, and automatically corrects affected models. We propose DriftGuard, a five-module framework that addresses the complete drift lifecycle. The system combines an ensemble of four complementary detection methods, namely error-based monitoring, statistical tests, autoencoder anomaly detection, and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) change-point analysis, with hierarchical propagation analysis to identify exactly where drift occurs across product lines. Once detected, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis diagnoses the root causes, and a cost-aware retraining strategy selectively updates only the most affected models. Evaluated on over 30,000 time series from the M5 retail dataset, DriftGuard achieves 97.8% detection recall within 4.2 days and delivers up to 417 return on investment through targeted remediation.
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