将地球几何特性融入Transformer,实现高效高精度全球中短期天气预报
Searth Transformer: A Transformer Architecture Incorporating Earth's Geospheric Physical Priors for Global Mid-Range Weather Forecasting
- 通过引入经向周期性与纬向边界,改进自注意力机制以适应地球球面结构
- 在1度分辨率下达到9天以上有效预报期,计算成本仅为传统方法的1/200
- 适合气象建模、地球系统科学及需要低算力高精度预测的研究者使用
准确的全球中短期天气预报是地球系统科学的基础。现有基于Transformer的模型多采用视觉中心架构,忽略地球球面几何与经向周期性,且传统自回归训练计算成本高,受误差累积限制预报时长。为此,我们提出移位地球Transformer(Searth Transformer),将经向周期性与纬向边界融入窗口化自注意力,实现物理一致的全球信息交互。进一步提出接力自回归(RAR)微调策略,在有限内存与算力下学习长时大气演化。基于此构建了全球中短期天气预报模型YanTian。YanTian在精度上优于欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率预报(HRES),在1°分辨率下性能媲美当前最先进AI模型,但计算成本仅为其约1/200。此外,其对Z500场的有效预报时长达10.3天,超过HRES的9天。本工作为复杂全球尺度地球物理流体系统的预测建模提供了稳健算法基础,拓展了地球系统科学的新路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate global medium-range weather forecasting is fundamental to Earth system science. Most existing Transformer-based forecasting models adopt vision-centric architectures that neglect the Earth's spherical geometry and zonal periodicity. In addition, conventional autoregressive training is computationally expensive and limits forecast horizons due to error accumulation. To address these challenges, we propose the Shifted Earth Transformer (Searth Transformer), a physics-informed architecture that incorporates zonal periodicity and meridional boundaries into window-based self-attention for physically consistent global information exchange. We further introduce a Relay Autoregressive (RAR) fine-tuning strategy that enables learning long-range atmospheric evolution under constrained memory and computational budgets. Based on these methods, we develop YanTian, a global medium-range weather forecasting model. YanTian achieves higher accuracy than the high-resolution forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and performs competitively with state-of-the-art AI models at one-degree resolution, while requiring roughly 200 times lower computational cost than standard autoregressive fine-tuning. Furthermore, YanTian attains a longer skillful forecast lead time for Z500 (10.3 days) than HRES (9 days). Beyond weather forecasting, this work establishes a robust algorithmic foundation for predictive modeling of complex global-scale geophysical circulation systems, offering new pathways for Earth system science.
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