arXiv:2601.09680cs.AI2026-01被引 4

用智能体AI自动监控供应链中断,实现提前预警与快速响应。

Automating Supply Chain Disruption Monitoring via an Agentic AI Approach

  • 设计七类智能体协同工作,从新闻中识别中断信号并映射到多级供应商网络。
  • 在30个模拟场景中平均3.83分钟完成全链分析,成本仅0.0836美元,准确率96.2%~99.1%。
  • 适合需要提升供应链韧性、追求实时风险响应的企业与研究者。

现代供应链易受地缘政治事件、需求波动、贸易限制及自然灾害等中断影响。由于多数企业仅能看清一级供应商,上游风险常在影响扩散后才被发现。为突破这一盲区,实现从被动恢复到主动韧性的转变,我们提出一种轻度监督的智能体式AI框架,可自主监测、分析并响应跨层级供应链中的中断。该框架由七类基于大语言模型和确定性工具的专用智能体组成,联合完成从非结构化新闻中检测中断信号、映射至多级供应商网络、基于网络结构评估暴露程度,并推荐替代采购方案等任务。我们在涵盖三家汽车制造商和五类中断的30个合成场景中进行评估,系统在核心任务上取得0.962至0.991的F1分数,平均端到端分析耗时3.83分钟,单次成本仅0.0836美元。相比行业标准的数日人工评估,响应速度提升超过三个数量级。真实案例研究显示其在2022年俄乌冲突中的实际应用价值。本工作为构建具备深度网络感知能力的主动韧性供应链奠定了基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern supply chains are increasingly exposed to disruptions from geopolitical events, demand shocks, trade restrictions, to natural disasters. While many of these disruptions originate deep in the supply network, most companies still lack visibility beyond Tier-1 suppliers, leaving upstream vulnerabilities undetected until the impact cascades downstream. To overcome this blind-spot and move from reactive recovery to proactive resilience, we introduce a minimally supervised agentic AI framework that autonomously monitors, analyses, and responds to disruptions across extended supply networks. The architecture comprises seven specialised agents powered by large language models and deterministic tools that jointly detect disruption signals from unstructured news, map them to multi-tier supplier networks, evaluate exposure based on network structure, and recommend mitigations such as alternative sourcing options. \rev{We evaluate the framework across 30 synthesised scenarios covering three automotive manufacturers and five disruption classes. The system achieves high accuracy across core tasks, with F1 scores between 0.962 and 0.991, and performs full end-to-end analyses in a mean of 3.83 minutes at a cost of \$0.0836 per disruption. Relative to industry benchmarks of multi-day, analyst-driven assessments, this represents a reduction of more than three orders of magnitude in response time. A real-world case study of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict further demonstrates operational applicability. This work establishes a foundational step toward building resilient, proactive, and autonomous supply chains capable of managing disruptions across deep-tier networks.

供应链智能体AI风险预警

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