通过结构解耦提升高价值用户预测精度,解决客户终身价值建模难题
CC-OR-Net: A Unified Framework for LTV Prediction through Structural Decoupling
- 用结构分解实现排序与回归的天然解耦,无需损失约束
- 在超3亿用户数据上验证,对高价值用户预测精度显著提升
- 适合需要精准识别高价值用户的营销与增长团队
客户终身价值(LTV)预测是现代营销的核心问题,其数据分布具有零膨胀和长尾特性。这带来两大挑战:一是低中价值用户数量庞大,掩盖了少数高价值‘鲸鱼’用户;二是低中价值群体内部存在显著价值异质性。现有方法或依赖刚性统计假设,或通过有序分桶解耦排序与回归,但多靠损失函数强制序关系,缺乏架构层面保障,难以兼顾全局准确率与高价值预测精度。为此,我们提出条件级联序残差网络(CC-OR-Net),一种通过结构分解实现稳健解耦的统一框架。该框架包含三个组件:结构化序分解模块用于鲁棒排序,桶内残差模块用于细粒度回归,高价值定向增强模块用于提升顶级用户预测精度。在超过3亿用户的实际数据集上评估,CC-OR-Net在所有关键业务指标上均表现更优,超越当前最优方法,构建出兼具整体性能与商业价值的LTV预测方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) prediction, a central problem in modern marketing, is characterized by a unique zero-inflated and long-tail data distribution. This distribution presents two fundamental challenges: (1) the vast majority of low-to-medium value users numerically overwhelm the small but critically important segment of high-value "whale" users, and (2) significant value heterogeneity exists even within the low-to-medium value user base. Common approaches either rely on rigid statistical assumptions or attempt to decouple ranking and regression using ordered buckets; however, they often enforce ordinality through loss-based constraints rather than inherent architectural design, failing to balance global accuracy with high-value precision. To address this gap, we propose \textbf{C}onditional \textbf{C}ascaded \textbf{O}rdinal-\textbf{R}esidual Networks \textbf{(CC-OR-Net)}, a novel unified framework that achieves a more robust decoupling through \textbf{structural decomposition}, where ranking is architecturally guaranteed. CC-OR-Net integrates three specialized components: a \textit{structural ordinal decomposition module} for robust ranking, an \textit{intra-bucket residual module} for fine-grained regression, and a \textit{targeted high-value augmentation module} for precision on top-tier users. Evaluated on real-world datasets with over 300M users, CC-OR-Net achieves a superior trade-off across all key business metrics, outperforming state-of-the-art methods in creating a holistic and commercially valuable LTV prediction solution.
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