arXiv:2601.10328cs.LG2026-01AAAI被引 2

用动态图结构统一建模交通流时空动态,提升预测精度。

Meta Dynamic Graph for Traffic Flow Prediction

  • 通过节点表示生成动态图和元参数,联合建模时空变化
  • 在四个真实数据集上均优于现有方法,最高提升12.3%
  • 适合需要高精度交通预测的智慧城市与导航系统

交通流预测是典型的时空预测问题,核心挑战在于建模复杂的时空依赖关系。现有方法多将空间与时间依赖分别建模,限制了时空相关性的捕捉。近期研究发现,引入动态建模有助于突破这一瓶颈。然而,当前方法的动态建模仍局限于空间拓扑(如邻接矩阵变化),且时空异质性常被分维处理,难以融合。为此,本文提出新型框架Meta Dynamic Graph(MetaDG),利用节点表示的动态图结构,显式建模时空动态,生成动态邻接矩阵与元参数,将动态建模扩展至非拓扑层面,并统一时空异质性到单一维度。在四个真实世界数据集上的实验验证了其有效性,显著优于基线模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Traffic flow prediction is a typical spatio-temporal prediction problem and has a wide range of applications. The core challenge lies in modeling the underlying complex spatio-temporal dependencies. Various methods have been proposed, and recent studies show that the modeling of dynamics is useful to meet the core challenge. While handling spatial dependencies and temporal dependencies using separate base model structures may hinder the modeling of spatio-temporal correlations, the modeling of dynamics can bridge this gap. Incorporating spatio-temporal heterogeneity also advances the main goal, since it can extend the parameter space and allow more flexibility. Despite these advances, two limitations persist: 1) the modeling of dynamics is often limited to the dynamics of spatial topology (e.g., adjacency matrix changes), which, however, can be extended to a broader scope; 2) the modeling of heterogeneity is often separated for spatial and temporal dimensions, but this gap can also be bridged by the modeling of dynamics. To address the above limitations, we propose a novel framework for traffic prediction, called Meta Dynamic Graph (MetaDG). MetaDG leverages dynamic graph structures of node representations to explicitly model spatio-temporal dynamics. This generates both dynamic adjacency matrices and meta-parameters, extending dynamic modeling beyond topology while unifying the capture of spatio-temporal heterogeneity into a single dimension. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of MetaDG.

交通预测动态图时空建模

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