用两阶段聚类分析电表数据,精准识别用户用电行为模式。
CROCS: A Two-Stage Clustering Framework for Behaviour-Centric Consumer Segmentation with Smart Meter Data
- 先分个体日负荷,再用加权距离比对群体模式。
- 在真实澳洲数据上准确捕捉行为差异与同步/异步相似性。
- 适合电力公司设计智能需求响应方案的从业者使用。
随着可再生能源并网和电气化趋势加剧,电网运营商面临日益增长的不确定性。需求侧管理(DSM),尤其是需求响应(DR),作为平衡现代电力系统的重要低成本手段受到关注。全球范围持续部署的智能电表产生了前所未有的用电数据量,使基于真实用电行为的用户细分成为可能,有助于设计更有效的DSM和DR计划。然而,现有基于聚类的细分方法未能充分反映消费者行为多样性,常依赖刚性时间对齐,在异常值、缺失数据或大规模部署下表现不佳。为此,本文提出一种新颖的两阶段聚类框架——簇化表示优化消费者细分(CROCS)。第一阶段独立对每个用户的日负荷曲线进行聚类,形成代表负荷集(RLS),以紧凑形式总结其典型昼夜用电行为。第二阶段采用新型集合到集合度量——加权最小距离和(WSMD),通过考虑行为的普遍性和相似性,比较各RLS。最后,在由WSMD诱导的图上进行社区检测,揭示体现共享昼夜行为的高阶原型,提升聚类结果的可解释性。在合成数据及真实澳大利亚智能电表数据集上的大量实验表明,CROCS能有效捕捉用户内部变异性,发现同步与异步行为相似性,对异常值和缺失数据具有鲁棒性,并可通过自然并行化实现高效扩展。这些结果验证了其在实际应用中的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
With grid operators confronting rising uncertainty from renewable integration and a broader push toward electrification, Demand-Side Management (DSM) -- particularly Demand Response (DR) -- has attracted significant attention as a cost-effective mechanism for balancing modern electricity systems. Unprecedented volumes of consumption data from a continuing global deployment of smart meters enable consumer segmentation based on real usage behaviours, promising to inform the design of more effective DSM and DR programs. However, existing clustering-based segmentation methods insufficiently reflect the behavioural diversity of consumers, often relying on rigid temporal alignment, and faltering in the presence of anomalies, missing data, or large-scale deployments. To address these challenges, we propose a novel two-stage clustering framework -- Clustered Representations Optimising Consumer Segmentation (CROCS). In the first stage, each consumer's daily load profiles are clustered independently to form a Representative Load Set (RLS), providing a compact summary of their typical diurnal consumption behaviours. In the second stage, consumers are clustered using the Weighted Sum of Minimum Distances (WSMD), a novel set-to-set measure that compares RLSs by accounting for both the prevalence and similarity of those behaviours. Finally, community detection on the WSMD-induced graph reveals higher-order prototypes that embody the shared diurnal behaviours defining consumer groups, enhancing the interpretability of the resulting clusters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real Australian smart meter datasets demonstrate that CROCS captures intra-consumer variability, uncovers both synchronous and asynchronous behavioural similarities, and remains robust to anomalies and missing data, while scaling efficiently through natural parallelisation. These results...
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