arXiv:2601.11016stat.MLcs.AI2026-01被引 1

提出可解释的因果连续分布鲁棒优化方法,提升决策可信度与稳定性。

Contextual Distributionally Robust Optimization with Causal and Continuous Structure: An Interpretable and Tractable Approach

  • 基于因果Sinkhorn距离构建含因果结构的鲁棒优化框架
  • 通过混合Gibbs分布刻画最坏情况分布,实现精准风险控制
  • 结合软回归森林与高效梯度算法,兼顾可解释性与计算效率

本文提出一种考虑潜在分布因果与连续结构的上下文分布鲁棒优化框架,设计可解释且可计算的决策规则。首先引入因果Sinkhorn差异(CSD),一种熵正则化的因果Wasserstein距离,支持连续传输计划并保持因果一致性。进而构建基于CSD的模糊集,提出因果Sinkhorn DRO(Causal-SDRO)模型,并推导其强对偶形式,其中最坏情况分布表现为混合Gibbs分布。为求解无限维策略优化问题,提出软回归森林(SRF)决策规则,可在任意可测函数空间中逼近最优策略,兼具经典决策树的可解释性与参数化、可微、Lipschitz光滑特性,支持全局与局部解释。针对参数化决策规则下的Causal-SDRO,开发高效随机复合梯度算法,以$O(\varepsilon^{-4})$收敛率达到$\varepsilon$-平稳点,与标准SGD一致。在合成与真实数据集上的数值实验验证了方法在性能与可解释性上的优越性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this paper, we introduce a framework for contextual distributionally robust optimization (DRO) that considers the causal and continuous structure of the underlying distribution by developing interpretable and tractable decision rules that prescribe decisions using covariates. We first introduce the causal Sinkhorn discrepancy (CSD), an entropy-regularized causal Wasserstein distance that encourages continuous transport plans while preserving the causal consistency. We then formulate a contextual DRO model with a CSD-based ambiguity set, termed Causal Sinkhorn DRO (Causal-SDRO), and derive its strong dual reformulation where the worst-case distribution is characterized as a mixture of Gibbs distributions. To solve the corresponding infinite-dimensional policy optimization, we propose the Soft Regression Forest (SRF) decision rule, which approximates optimal policies within arbitrary measurable function spaces. The SRF preserves the interpretability of classical decision trees while being fully parametric, differentiable, and Lipschitz smooth, enabling intrinsic interpretation from both global and local perspectives. To solve the Causal-SDRO with parametric decision rules, we develop an efficient stochastic compositional gradient algorithm that converges to an $\varepsilon$-stationary point at a rate of $O(\varepsilon^{-4})$, matching the convergence rate of standard stochastic gradient descent. Finally, we validate our method through numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating its superior performance and interpretability.

鲁棒优化因果推理可解释性决策树

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