综述机器学习预测糖尿病低血糖,帮患者提前预警。
A Review on Machine Learning Approaches for the Prediction of Glucose Levels and Hypogylcemia
- 按回归与分类方法区分模型,分别预测血糖值和低血糖事件
- 1小时内预测效果最佳,传统机器学习在分类上表现最好
- 个性化数据提升性能,但因质量有限,群体模型更优
1型糖尿病(T1D)是自身免疫性疾病,导致胰岛素不足,患者需终身注射胰岛素,但易引发低血糖。低血糖指血糖水平低于70 mg/dL,显著增加死亡风险。机器学习(ML)模型可通过连续血糖监测(CGM)数据预测低血糖,优化管理策略。本文综述基于T1D患者CGM数据的先进模型,比较其在短期(15至120分钟)与长期(3至24小时以上)预测时长下的表现。重点探讨:1)血糖或低血糖事件最多可提前多久准确预测?2)哪些模型性能最优?3)影响性能的关键因素?4)个性化是否提升效果?结果表明:1)预测时长不超过1小时时效果最佳;2)分类任务中传统机器学习表现最佳,回归任务则深度学习更优;单一模型难以跨多时长有效分类;3)多变量数据集与输入序列长度(ISL)显著影响性能;4)个性化数据能提升性能,但受限于数据质量,群体模型仍更优。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease leading to insulin insufficiency. Thus, patients require lifelong insulin therapy, which has a side effect of hypoglycemia. Hypoglycemia is a critical state of decreased blood glucose levels (BGL) below 70 mg/dL and is associated with increased risk of mortality. Machine learning (ML) models can improve diabetes management by predicting hypoglycemia and providing optimal prevention methods. ML models are classified into regression and classification based, that forecast glucose levels and identify events based on defined labels, respectively. This review investigates state-of-the-art models trained on data of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices from patients with T1D. We compare the models' performance across short-term (15 to 120 min) and long term (3 to more than 24 hours) prediction horizons (PHs). Particularly, we explore: 1) How much in advance can glucose values or a hypoglycemic event be accurately predicted? 2) Which models have the best performance? 3) Which factors impact the performance? and 4) Does personalization increase performance? The results show that 1) a PH of up to 1 hour provides the best results. 2) Conventional ML methods yield the best results for classification and DL for regression. A single model cannot adequately classify across multiple PHs. 3) The model performance is influenced by multivariate datasets and the input sequence length (ISL). 4) Personal data enhances performance but due to limited data quality population-based models are preferred.
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