arXiv:2601.11860stat.APcs.LG2026-01被引 1

让医疗AI在数据变化中保持稳定,只需少量更新

Adversarial Drift-Aware Predictive Transfer: Toward Durable Clinical AI

  • 用历史模型和少量新数据构建未来模型的可能范围
  • 在最坏情况下优化性能,年均性能衰减低于5%
  • 无需重新训练或标注数据,适合隐私敏感的医疗场景

临床AI系统常因时间数据漂移(如人群变化、诊断编码更新、疫情冲击)导致部署后性能下降。频繁重训既不现实又受计算成本与隐私限制。为此,我们提出对抗性漂移感知预测迁移框架ADAPT,通过结合历史源模型与有限当前数据,构建未来模型的合理不确定性集,并在该集合上优化最差情况性能,平衡当前准确率与对未来漂移的鲁棒性。关键优势在于仅需历史时期的摘要级模型估计量,保护数据隐私且操作简便。在马萨诸塞总医院(2005–2021)与杜克大学医疗系统电子病历数据上验证,ADAPT在编码转换与疫情冲击下均表现出更优稳定性,实现无需未来标签或重训的年度性能衰减控制在5%以下,为高风险医疗环境中的可靠AI提供可扩展解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Clinical AI systems frequently suffer performance decay post-deployment due to temporal data shifts, such as evolving populations, diagnostic coding updates (e.g., ICD-9 to ICD-10), and systemic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing this ``aging'' effect via frequent retraining is often impractical due to computational costs and privacy constraints. To overcome these hurdles, we introduce Adversarial Drift-Aware Predictive Transfer (ADAPT), a novel framework designed to confer durability against temporal drift with minimal retraining. ADAPT innovatively constructs an uncertainty set of plausible future models by combining historical source models and limited current data. By optimizing worst-case performance over this set, it balances current accuracy with robustness against degradation due to future drifts. Crucially, ADAPT requires only summary-level model estimators from historical periods, preserving data privacy and ensuring operational simplicity. Validated on longitudinal suicide risk prediction using electronic health records from Mass General Brigham (2005--2021) and Duke University Health Systems, ADAPT demonstrated superior stability across coding transitions and pandemic-induced shifts. By minimizing annual performance decay without labeling or retraining future data, ADAPT offers a scalable pathway for sustaining reliable AI in high-stakes healthcare environments.

医疗AI时间漂移鲁棒性隐私保护

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