用扩散模型生成国债期货数据,能精准还原市场特性。
TF-CoDiT: Conditional Time Series Synthesis with Diffusion Transformers for Treasury Futures
- 将时间序列转为小波系数矩阵,结合变分自编码器建模多变量关联。
- 合成数据误差仅0.433(MSE)和0.453(MAE),接近真实数据。
- 支持语言提示控制,适合金融风控与量化研究场景。
扩散变换器(DiT)在股票价格和订单流等金融时序数据生成上已取得突破,但在国债期货数据生成方面仍待探索。本文针对国债期货数据低频、市场依赖性强及多变量组内相关性高等特点,提出首个面向语言控制的国债期货生成框架TF-CoDiT。为提升低数据场景下的性能,该方法将多通道一维时序数据转换为离散小波变换(DWT)系数矩阵,并设计一种U型变分自编码器,分层编码跨通道依赖关系,通过解码桥接潜在空间与DWT空间,实现潜在变量扩散生成。为生成涵盖关键条件的提示,引入金融市场属性协议(FinMAP),从7/8个视角识别17/23个经济指标,标准化每日/周期性市场动态。实验使用2015至2025年四类国债期货数据,设置为期一周至四个月的合成任务。大量评估表明,TF-CoDiT生成数据误差最大为MSE 0.433、MAE 0.453,高度逼近真实数据;且在不同合约和时间跨度下均表现出强鲁棒性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Diffusion Transformers (DiT) have achieved milestones in synthesizing financial time-series data, such as stock prices and order flows. However, their performance in synthesizing treasury futures data is still underexplored. This work emphasizes the characteristics of treasury futures data, including its low volume, market dependencies, and the grouped correlations among multivariables. To overcome these challenges, we propose TF-CoDiT, the first DiT framework for language-controlled treasury futures synthesis. To facilitate low-data learning, TF-CoDiT adapts the standard DiT by transforming multi-channel 1-D time series into Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) coefficient matrices. A U-shape VAE is proposed to encode cross-channel dependencies hierarchically into a latent variable and bridge the latent and DWT spaces through decoding, thereby enabling latent diffusion generation. To derive prompts that cover essential conditions, we introduce the Financial Market Attribute Protocol (FinMAP) - a multi-level description system that standardizes daily$/$periodical market dynamics by recognizing 17$/$23 economic indicators from 7/8 perspectives. In our experiments, we gather four types of treasury futures data covering the period from 2015 to 2025, and define data synthesis tasks with durations ranging from one week to four months. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that TF-CoDiT can produce highly authentic data with errors at most 0.433 (MSE) and 0.453 (MAE) to the ground-truth. Further studies evidence the robustness of TF-CoDiT across contracts and temporal horizons.
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