arXiv:2601.12178cs.LGstat.ML2026-01

用联邦学习设计可适配不同风电光伏损失的保险指数,避免数据泄露且更精准。

Federated Learning for the Design of Parametric Insurance Indices under Heterogeneous Renewable Production Losses

  • 各电站本地用广义线性模型拟合自身损失,通过联邦优化联合训练统一保险指数。
  • 121个德国太阳能电站实验显示,传统方法50家后无法计算,联邦学习仍有效且提速250倍以上。
  • 针对气候差异导致的偏差问题,提出修正聚合方案,让真正需要保障的农户获益。

本文提出一种联邦学习框架,用于在异质可再生能源发电损失条件下校准参数化保险指数。各生产者使用私有数据和Tweedie广义线性模型本地建模损失,通过联邦优化学习全局指数而不共享原始数据。该方法能处理方差与连接函数的异质性,并在分布式环境下直接最小化全局偏差目标。理论分析表明,在次指数协变量分布下,局部Tweedie目标的Lipschitz常数与生产者i的离散参数ϕ_i成反比,这种平滑度差异导致朴素联邦平均偏向气候稳定的生产者——恰恰是基差风险最低的一方。因此需采用校正聚合策略。我们实现并比较了FedAvg、FedProx和FedOpt,并与现有近似聚合方法对比。对德国最多达121个太阳能电站的渐进池扩展实验表明,近似方法在超过50家时完全不可计算,而联邦学习保持可行且随规模增长持续改进。联邦学习相较基准方法快逾250倍,证明其是异质生产者群体中唯一兼具计算与统计有效性的方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose a federated learning framework for the calibration of parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses. Producers locally model their losses using Tweedie generalized linear models and private data, while a common index is learned through federated optimization without sharing raw observations. The approach accommodates heterogeneity in variance and link functions and directly minimizes a global deviance objective in a distributed setting. We establish theoretical guarantees under sub-exponential covariate distributions, showing that the Lipschitz constants of the local Tweedie objectives scale as $\frac{1}{ϕ_i}$, where $ϕ_i$ is the dispersion parameter of producer $i$. This heterogeneity in smoothness causes naive federated averaging to be biased toward producers with stable microclimates --- precisely those least in need of basis-risk protection --- and motivates the use of corrected aggregation schemes. We implement and compare FedAvg, FedProx and FedOpt, and benchmark them against an existing approximation-based aggregation method. A progressive pool expansion experiment involving up to 121 solar farms in Germany reveals that the approximation-based method becomes entirely non-computable beyond the pool of 50 farms, while federated learning remains valid and actively improves as the pool grows. Federated learning is also over $250\times$ faster than the approximation-based benchmark, establishing it as the only computationally and statistically valid approach for heterogeneous producer pools.

联邦学习保险科技可再生能源分布式优化

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