arXiv:2601.12706cs.LG2026-01

将时间序列预测拆解为趋势与数值两步,提升黄金价格预测精度。

Trend-Adjusted Time Series Models with an Application to Gold Price Forecasting

  • 先用二分类器预测趋势方向,再用LSTM/Bi-LSTM预测具体数值。
  • 在黄金价格数据上,误差显著低于标准LSTM与Bi-LSTM模型。
  • 引入趋势准确率评估,弥补传统指标不足,适合金融时序分析者。

时间序列数据在金融、医疗、营销和工程等领域至关重要。已有多种方法(从经典统计模型到基于神经网络的LSTM等)用于时间序列预测。本文将预测任务重新定义为两部分:(1) 预测下一时刻的时间序列趋势(方向),(2) 预测下一时刻的具体数值。趋势由二分类器预测,数值则由LSTM或双向LSTM(Bi-LSTM)建模。基于此思路,提出趋势调整时间序列模型(TATS),根据分类器输出的趋势对预测值进行修正。通过理论分析与实证验证,TATS应用于高波动性金融时序——日度黄金价格预测。实验结果表明,TATS在所有测试中均显著优于标准LSTM与Bi-LSTM,预测误差更低。此外,研究发现均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)不足以全面评估模型性能,因此引入趋势检测准确率作为补充指标,以更真实反映模型捕捉趋势的能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series data play a critical role in various fields, including finance, healthcare, marketing, and engineering. A wide range of techniques (from classical statistical models to neural network-based approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)) have been employed to address time series forecasting challenges. In this paper, we reframe time series forecasting as a two-part task: (1) predicting the trend (directional movement) of the time series at the next time step, and (2) forecasting the quantitative value at the next time step. The trend can be predicted using a binary classifier, while quantitative values can be forecasted using models such as LSTM and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM). Building on this reframing, we propose the Trend-Adjusted Time Series (TATS) model, which adjusts the forecasted values based on the predicted trend provided by the binary classifier. We validate the proposed approach through both theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation. The TATS model is applied to a volatile financial time series (the daily gold price) with the objective of forecasting the next days price. Experimental results demonstrate that TATS consistently outperforms standard LSTM and Bi-LSTM models by achieving significantly lower forecasting error. In addition, our results indicate that commonly used metrics such as MSE and MAE are insufficient for fully assessing time series model performance. Therefore, we also incorporate trend detection accuracy, which measures how effectively a model captures trends in a time series.

时间序列趋势预测黄金价格LSTM

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