arXiv:2601.12856cs.AIcs.LG2026-01中稿 · WWW 2026 Web4Good …

通过网络模型挖掘新加坡登革热传播隐含路径,实现提前预警。

Mining Citywide Dengue Spread Patterns in Singapore Through Hotspot Dynamics from Open Web Data

  • 从公开病例数据中挖掘区域间隐性传播链,建模热点扩散关联。
  • 四周期历史数据可实现平均F-score 0.79的预测性能。
  • 传播链与通勤流高度一致,适合城市公共卫生预警系统。

登革热作为一种蚊媒疾病,在热带城市如新加坡持续构成重大公共卫生挑战。有效且低成本的防控需提前预判传播风险区域,以实现主动干预。本研究提出一种新框架,直接从公开的登革热病例数据中挖掘并利用城市区域间的潜在传播联系。不同于将病例视为孤立事件,该方法建模某一区域热点形成如何受邻近区域流行病动态影响。尽管蚊子移动范围有限,但远距离传播多由人类流动驱动;在案例研究中,学习得到的传播网络与通勤流量高度吻合,提供了可解释的城市级传播机制。这些隐含链接通过梯度下降优化,不仅用于预测热点状态,还可通过连续周次间网络稳定性检验传播模式的一致性。对2013–2018年及2020年新加坡的数据分析表明,仅需四周热点历史即可达到平均F-score 0.79。重要的是,学习到的传播链与通勤流一致,揭示了隐性传播与人类流动之间的可解释关系。该工作将开放网络病例数据从被动报告转变为可预测、可解释的资源,推动了流行病建模的发展,为公共健康规划、早期干预和城市韧性提供了一种可扩展、低成本的工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, continues to pose a persistent public health challenge in urban areas, particularly in tropical regions such as Singapore. Effective and affordable control requires anticipating where transmission risks are likely to emerge so that interventions can be deployed proactively rather than reactively. This study introduces a novel framework that uncovers and exploits latent transmission links between urban regions, mined directly from publicly available dengue case data. Instead of treating cases as isolated reports, we model how hotspot formation in one area is influenced by epidemic dynamics in neighboring regions. While mosquito movement is highly localized, long-distance transmission is often driven by human mobility, and in our case study, the learned network aligns closely with commuting flows, providing an interpretable explanation for citywide spread. These hidden links are optimized through gradient descent and used not only to forecast hotspot status but also to verify the consistency of spreading patterns, by examining the stability of the inferred network across consecutive weeks. Case studies on Singapore during 2013-2018 and 2020 show that four weeks of hotspot history are sufficient to achieve an average F-score of 0.79. Importantly, the learned transmission links align with commuting flows, highlighting the interpretable interplay between hidden epidemic spread and human mobility. By shifting from simply reporting dengue cases to mining and validating hidden spreading dynamics, this work transforms open web-based case data into a predictive and explanatory resource. The proposed framework advances epidemic modeling while providing a scalable, low-cost tool for public health planning, early intervention, and urban resilience.

登革热传播网络城市防疫预测模型

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