arXiv:2601.12931cs.LGcs.AI2026-01

提出一种更鲁棒的在线时间序列学习方法,能快速适应变化且不遗忘旧知识。

Online Continual Learning for Time Series: a Natural Score-driven Approach

  • 将神经网络优化视为参数滤波,证明自然梯度是信息最优的得分驱动方法
  • 引入t分布似然使更新有界,显著提升对异常值的鲁棒性
  • 结合回放机制与动态尺度策略,适合应对突发的模式突变场景

在线持续学习(OCL)方法可在不遗忘旧知识的前提下适应变化环境。类似地,在线时间序列预测(OTSF)是数据随时间演化的实际问题,成功依赖于快速适应和长期记忆。时变与制度转换的预测模型已被广泛研究,为在该场景中应用OCL提供了充分理由。本文基于近期将OCL应用于OTSF的工作,旨在强化时间序列方法与OCL之间的理论与实践联系。首先,我们将神经网络优化重构为参数滤波问题,证明自然梯度下降是一种得分驱动方法,并推导其信息论最优性。其次,我们发现使用Student's t似然配合自然梯度可诱导有界更新,提升对异常值的鲁棒性。最后,提出自然得分驱动回放(NatSR),结合鲁棒优化器、回放缓冲区及动态尺度启发式,显著提升在制度突变下的快速适应能力。实验表明,NatSR在多个真实数据集上优于更复杂的先进方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Online continual learning (OCL) methods adapt to changing environments without forgetting past knowledge. Similarly, online time series forecasting (OTSF) is a real-world problem where data evolve in time and success depends on both rapid adaptation and long-term memory. Indeed, time-varying and regime-switching forecasting models have been extensively studied, offering a strong justification for the use of OCL in these settings. Building on recent work that applies OCL to OTSF, this paper aims to strengthen the theoretical and practical connections between time series methods and OCL. First, we reframe neural network optimization as a parameter filtering problem, showing that natural gradient descent is a score-driven method and proving its information-theoretic optimality. Then, we show that using a Student's t likelihood in addition to natural gradient induces a bounded update, which improves robustness to outliers. Finally, we introduce Natural Score-driven Replay (NatSR), which combines our robust optimizer with a replay buffer and a dynamic scale heuristic that improves fast adaptation at regime drifts. Empirical results demonstrate that NatSR achieves stronger forecasting performance than more complex state-of-the-art methods.

在线学习时间序列鲁棒性持续学习

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