arXiv:2601.13422cs.LGcs.AI2026-01AAAI被引 6

提出统一框架,提升家庭级用电预测精度与可靠性。

TrustEnergy: A Unified Framework for Accurate and Reliable User-level Energy Usage Prediction

  • 分层时空图神经网络捕捉宏观与微观用电模式。
  • 动态调整置信区间,不确定性量化提升5.7%。
  • 适合电网管理、灾害响应等需高可靠预测场景。

用电预测对电网管理、基础设施规划和灾害响应等实际应用至关重要。尽管已有大量深度学习方法被提出,但多数忽略家庭间的空间关联,或难以实现个性化预测,导致细粒度用户级预测效果不佳。此外,受极端天气等因素影响,用电行为具有动态不确定性,现有研究尚未充分探索其量化方法。本文提出统一框架TrustEnergy,包含两项关键技术:(i) 分层时空表示模块,通过新型记忆增强的时空图神经网络高效捕捉宏观与微观用电模式;(ii) 创新性序列化分位数回归校准模块,动态调整不确定性边界,确保预测区间时间上有效,且无需对数据分布做强假设。在佛罗里达某电力公司合作数据集上评估,TrustEnergy相比顶尖基线,预测准确率提升5.4%,不确定性量化性能提高5.7%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Energy usage prediction is important for various real-world applications, including grid management, infrastructure planning, and disaster response. Although a plethora of deep learning approaches have been proposed to perform this task, most of them either overlook the essential spatial correlations across households or fail to scale to individualized prediction, making them less effective for accurate fine-grained user-level prediction. In addition, due to the dynamic and uncertain nature of energy usage caused by various factors such as extreme weather events, quantifying uncertainty for reliable prediction is also significant, but it has not been fully explored in existing work. In this paper, we propose a unified framework called TrustEnergy for accurate and reliable user-level energy usage prediction. There are two key technical components in TrustEnergy, (i) a Hierarchical Spatiotemporal Representation module to efficiently capture both macro and micro energy usage patterns with a novel memory-augmented spatiotemporal graph neural network, and (ii) an innovative Sequential Conformalized Quantile Regression module to dynamically adjust uncertainty bounds to ensure valid prediction intervals over time, without making strong assumptions about the underlying data distribution. We implement and evaluate our TrustEnergy framework by working with an electricity provider in Florida, and the results show our TrustEnergy can achieve a 5.4% increase in prediction accuracy and 5.7% improvement in uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

用电预测图神经网络不确定性量化智能电网

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