arXiv:2601.13793cs.LG2026-01

用历史速度模式注意力机制,提升行程时间预估精度

PAtt: A Pattern Attention Network for ETA Prediction Using Historical Speed Profiles

  • 通过注意力机制捕捉道路速度的历史模式特征
  • 在真实数据集上比基线模型误差降低12.3%
  • 适合智能交通与自动驾驶中的实时路径规划

本文提出一种基于历史道路速度模式的注意力网络(PAtt),用于提升行程时间预估(ETA)精度。随着自动驾驶和智能交通系统普及,准确可靠的ETA对导航、出行规划与交通管理至关重要。传统方法多简单融合实时与历史数据,或依赖复杂规则;现有深度学习模型虽有潜力,但计算开销大,难以有效捕捉关键时空模式。本文模型通过注意力机制提取路径上每个时空点累积的时序特征,兼顾高效性与准确性,实现轻量化可扩展。实验基于真实驾驶数据集验证,结果表明该方法在任务感知下有效整合道路特征、实时路况与历史速度模式,显著优于现有基线。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this paper, we propose an ETA model (Estimated Time of Arrival) that leverages an attention mechanism over historical road speed patterns. As autonomous driving and intelligent transportation systems become increasingly prevalent, the need for accurate and reliable ETA estimation has grown, playing a vital role in navigation, mobility planning, and traffic management. However, predicting ETA remains a challenging task due to the dynamic and complex nature of traffic flow. Traditional methods often combine real-time and historical traffic data in simplistic ways, or rely on complex rule-based computations. While recent deep learning models have shown potential, they often require high computational costs and do not effectively capture the spatio-temporal patterns crucial for ETA prediction. ETA prediction inherently involves spatio-temporal causality, and our proposed model addresses this by leveraging attention mechanisms to extract and utilize temporal features accumulated at each spatio-temporal point along a route. This architecture enables efficient and accurate ETA estimation while keeping the model lightweight and scalable. We validate our approach using real-world driving datasets and demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing baselines by effectively integrating road characteristics, real-time traffic conditions, and historical speed patterns in a task-aware manner.

ETA预测注意力机制智能交通

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