arXiv:2601.14099cs.LGcs.AI2026-01

针对工业过程时滞与变量相关性,提出基于时滞交叉映射的因果特征选择框架。

Causal feature selection framework for stable soft sensor modeling based on time-delayed cross mapping

  • 利用时滞交叉映射处理变量间依赖与时间延迟问题
  • TDCCM平均性能最优,TDPCM在最差场景提升模型稳定性
  • 自动确定因果阈值,实现无需人工干预的特征筛选

软传感器建模在过程监控中至关重要。因果特征选择可提升软传感器在工业应用中的性能,但现有方法忽略工业过程两个关键特性:其一,变量间的因果关系普遍存在时间延迟,而多数方法在相同时间维度分析因果关系;其二,工业过程变量常相互依赖,违背传统因果推断的独立性假设。因此,基于现有因果特征选择方法的软传感器模型往往精度和稳定性不足。为此,本文提出基于时滞交叉映射的因果特征选择框架。该框架采用状态空间重构有效处理因果分析中的变量依赖问题,并考虑因果强度随时滞的变化。引入时滞收敛交叉映射(TDCCM)实现全局因果推断,构建时滞部分交叉映射(TDPCM)实现直接因果推断。为实现自动特征选择,提出目标导向的特征选择策略:基于验证集性能自动确定因果阈值,进而筛选因果特征。两个真实案例研究显示,TDCCM达到最高平均性能,而TDPCM在最差情形下显著提升软传感器稳定性与性能。代码已公开于 https://github.com/dirge1/TDPCM。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Soft sensor modeling plays a crucial role in process monitoring. Causal feature selection can enhance the performance of soft sensor models in industrial applications. However, existing methods ignore two critical characteristics of industrial processes. Firstly, causal relationships between variables always involve time delays, whereas most causal feature selection methods investigate causal relationships in the same time dimension. Secondly, variables in industrial processes are often interdependent, which contradicts the decorrelation assumption of traditional causal inference methods. Consequently, soft sensor models based on existing causal feature selection approaches often lack sufficient accuracy and stability. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a causal feature selection framework based on time-delayed cross mapping. Time-delayed cross mapping employs state space reconstruction to effectively handle interdependent variables in causality analysis, and considers varying causal strength across time delay. Time-delayed convergent cross mapping (TDCCM) is introduced for total causal inference, and time-delayed partial cross mapping (TDPCM) is developed for direct causal inference. Then, in order to achieve automatic feature selection, an objective feature selection strategy is presented. The causal threshold is automatically determined based on the model performance on the validation set, and the causal features are then selected. Two real-world case studies show that TDCCM achieves the highest average performance, while TDPCM improves soft sensor stability and performance in the worst scenario. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/dirge1/TDPCM.

软传感器因果推断时滞分析

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