arXiv:2601.14570cs.LG2026-01中稿 · Special Session 10…

用预约动态预测世园会人流,无需复杂外部数据。

Place with Intention: An Empirical Attendance Predictive Study of Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan

  • 以门票预订和更新行为作为游客意向代理,构建预测模型。
  • 分东西门建模比整体建模更准,短中期效果提升明显。
  • 适合大型国际活动的运营方参考,尤其数据有限时。

准确预测大型国际活动如2025年大阪世园会的日入场人数,对交通调度、人流管理和服务安排至关重要。现有方法常依赖天气、交通、社交媒体等多源外部数据,但在历史数据不足时可靠性下降。为此,我们提出一种基于Transformer的框架,将预约动态(即时间窗内的票务预订与更新)作为游客出席意向的代理,假设该意向最终会体现在预约模式中。此设计避免了多源数据融合的复杂性,同时隐式捕捉了天气、促销等外部影响。我们构建了一个包含入场记录与预约动态的数据集,并在单通道(总人数)和双通道(按东门和西门分离)设置下进行评估。结果表明,分别建模东西门显著提升精度,尤其在短中期内表现优异。消融实验进一步验证了编码器-解码器结构、逆向嵌入及自适应融合模块的重要性。总体而言,预约动态为大型国际活动的人流预测提供了实用且信息丰富的基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate forecasting of daily attendance is vital for managing transportation, crowd flows, and services at large-scale international events such as Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan. However, existing approaches often rely on multi-source external data (such as weather, traffic, and social media) to improve accuracy, which can lead to unreliable results when historical data are insufficient. To address these challenges, we propose a Transformer-based framework that leverages reservation dynamics, i.e., ticket bookings and subsequent updates within a time window, as a proxy for visitors' attendance intentions, under the assumption that such intentions are eventually reflected in reservation patterns. This design avoids the complexity of multi-source integration while still capturing external influences like weather and promotions implicitly embedded in reservation dynamics. We construct a dataset combining entrance records and reservation dynamics and evaluate the model under both single-channel (total attendance) and two-channel (separated by East and West gates) settings. Results show that separately modeling East and West gates consistently improves accuracy, particularly for short- and medium-term horizons. Ablation studies further confirm the importance of the encoder-decoder structure, inverse-style embedding, and adaptive fusion module. Overall, our findings indicate that reservation dynamics offer a practical and informative foundation for attendance forecasting in large-scale international events.

客流预测世园会预约数据Transformer

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