arXiv:2601.15977cs.LGcs.SI2026-01

融合医院属性与人口流动数据,预测医疗就诊流量并分析影响因素。

Predicting Healthcare System Visitation Flow by Integrating Hospital Attributes and Population Socioeconomics with Human Mobility Data

  • 整合医院容量、评分、流行度与人口社会经济特征,结合移动数据建模。
  • 深度重力模型表现最佳,短途依赖便利性,长途更看重医院评分。
  • 不同人群对医院评分敏感度差异明显,低收入及老年群体就诊更频繁。

医疗就诊模式受医院属性、人口社会经济状况和空间因素的复杂影响。现有研究多孤立分析这些因素。本研究通过整合医院容量、占用率、声誉与受欢迎程度,结合人口社会经济特征和空间移动模式,预测休斯顿地区就诊流量并分析影响因素。利用四年期SafeGraph移动数据与Google Maps评论用户数据,训练了五种流量预测模型:朴素回归、梯度提升、多层感知机(MLPs)、深度重力模型和异质图神经网络(HGNN),并采用SHAP分析和部分依赖图(PDP)探究各因素联合影响。结果表明,深度重力模型性能最优。医院容量、重症床位占用率、评分和受欢迎程度显著影响就诊模式,其作用随距离变化:短距离就诊主要受便利性驱动,长距离则更受医院评分影响。白人占多数区域对评分敏感度较低,而亚裔及高教育水平人群更重视医院评分。社会经济地位进一步影响模式,西班牙裔、黑人、18岁以下及65岁以上人口比例高的区域就诊频率更高,可能反映更高医疗需求或获取替代服务受限。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Healthcare visitation patterns are influenced by a complex interplay of hospital attributes, population socioeconomics, and spatial factors. However, existing research often adopts a fragmented approach, examining these determinants in isolation. This study addresses this gap by integrating hospital capacities, occupancy rates, reputation, and popularity with population SES and spatial mobility patterns to predict visitation flows and analyze influencing factors. Utilizing four years of SafeGraph mobility data and user experience data from Google Maps Reviews, five flow prediction models, Naive Regression, Gradient Boosting, Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs), Deep Gravity, and Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks (HGNN),were trained and applied to simulate visitation flows in Houston, Texas, U.S. The Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis and the Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) method were employed to examine the combined impacts of different factors on visitation patterns. The findings reveal that Deep Gravity outperformed other models. Hospital capacities, ICU occupancy rates, ratings, and popularity significantly influence visitation patterns, with their effects varying across different travel distances. Short-distance visits are primarily driven by convenience, whereas long-distance visits are influenced by hospital ratings. White-majority areas exhibited lower sensitivity to hospital ratings for short-distance visits, while Asian populations and those with higher education levels prioritized hospital rating in their visitation decisions. SES further influence these patterns, as areas with higher proportions of Hispanic, Black, under-18, and over-65 populations tend to have more frequent hospital visits, potentially reflecting greater healthcare needs or limited access to alternative medical services.

医疗预测图神经网络人口流动社会经济

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