用推理+动态修正提升罕见事件预测准确率,避免误判漏判。
Reasoning-Enhanced Rare-Event Prediction with Balanced Outcome Correction
- 先用推理模型生成丰富预测,再用轻量分类器按置信度修正结果
- 测试集精度显著提升,罕见事件漏报率大幅下降
- 适合医疗、金融等高风险低频事件场景,可降低预防成本40%以上
罕见事件预测在医疗、金融、航空安全等领域至关重要,但正样本稀少导致传统模型偏向多数类,影响召回率与校准性。本文提出LPCORP(低预发率预测修正框架),采用两阶段设计:先通过推理模型从文本输入生成增强预测,再由轻量级分类器(逻辑回归或MLP)基于置信度选择性修正输出,缓解流行率偏差。在医疗与客户服务的真实数据集上验证,该方法将原始稀疏预测任务转化为更均衡的修正任务,无需丢弃或重采样样本。测试结果显示,尤其在精度方面有显著提升,是低预发数据中的常见短板。进一步的成本分析表明,若采用低成本预测驱动的预防干预,相比无预防措施下的事后处理,可实现最高达40%以上的成本削减。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Rare-event prediction is critical in domains such as healthcare, finance, reliability engineering, customer support, aviation safety, where positive outcomes are infrequent yet potentially catastrophic. Extreme class imbalance biases conventional models toward majority-class predictions, limiting recall, calibration, and operational usefulness. We propose LPCORP (Low-Prevalence CORrector for Prediction)*, a two-stage framework that combines reasoning-enhanced prediction with confidence-based outcome correction. A reasoning model first produces enriched predictions from narrative inputs, after which a lightweight classifier evaluates and selectively corrects these outputs to mitigate prevalence-driven bias. In this study we used Logistic-Regression (LR) and a simple Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) classifiers for this purpose. We evaluate LPCORP on real-world datasets from medical and consumer service domains. The results show that this method transforms the original rare-event prediction problem into a more balanced supervised correction task without discarding or resampling observations. Test-set evaluation demonstrates substantially improved performance, particularly in precision, which is a known weakness in low-prevalence data. We further provide a cost-reduction analysis comparing the expenses associated with rare-event damage control without preventive measures to those incurred when low-cost, prediction-based preventive interventions are applied that showed up to 40+% reduction in some cases.
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