分离常见与罕见时间模式,提升预测模型的适应能力。
Dual-Prototype Disentanglement: A Context-Aware Enhancement Framework for Time Series Forecasting
- 构建双原型库:一个存常见趋势,一个动态记忆罕见异常。
- 根据上下文选择性调用对应模式,显著提升多场景预测精度。
- 适用于金融、气象等复杂时序数据,尤其适合异常敏感任务。
现实世界的时间序列同时受重复性结构(如趋势和季节性)与罕见但关键的波动(如突变和极端事件)影响。现有方法缺乏显式机制来按不同预测角色组织和利用这些异质模式,导致常见与罕见模式相互纠缠,阻碍模型根据上下文动态区分并选择性利用。为此,我们提出模型无关的双重原型自适应解耦框架(DPAD),通过构建动态双原型库(DDP)实现模式分离:一个基于结构化先验初始化的常见模式库,用于表征普遍动态;另一个稀有模式库则自适应记忆罕见偏差。进一步设计双路径上下文感知路由(DPC)机制,从DDP中选择性检索上下文相关的模式表示以增强输出。引入解耦引导损失(DGLoss),确保各原型库专注其指定角色的同时保持充分覆盖。在多个真实世界基准上的大量实验表明,DPAD能持续提升多种时间序列模型的预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Real-world time series are governed by both recurring structures, such as trends and seasonality, and infrequent yet critical variations, such as abrupt shifts and rare events. However, existing methods often lack an explicit mechanism to organize and utilize these heterogeneous patterns according to their distinct forecasting roles. Consequently, common and rare patterns can become entangled, preventing models from dynamically distinguishing and selectively leveraging them according to context. To address this issue, we propose Dual-Prototype Adaptive Disentanglement (DPAD), a model-agnostic framework that organizes temporal patterns by their forecasting roles. Specifically, we construct a Dynamic Dual-Prototype bank (DDP), comprising a common pattern bank initialized with structured temporal priors to represent prevalent dynamics, and a rare bank that adaptively memorizes infrequent deviations. Then a Dual-Path Context-aware routing (DPC) mechanism enhances outputs with selectively retrieved context-specific pattern representations from DDP. A Disentanglement-Guided Loss (DGLoss) is further introduced to ensure that each prototype bank specializes in its designated role while maintaining sufficient coverage. Extensive experiments across diverse real-world benchmarks demonstrate that DPAD consistently improves the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models.
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