arXiv:2601.17008cs.LGq-fin.TR2026-01KDD

用对抗生成市场数据训练稳健交易模型,提升极端行情下的盈利与风控能力。

Bayesian Robust Financial Trading with Adversarial Synthetic Market Data

  • 基于宏观经济条件的GAN生成真实多样的合成市场数据
  • 构建双人零和贝叶斯博弈框架,对抗性扰动下仍保持策略稳定
  • 在9种金融产品上超越9个前沿基线,新冠疫情期间表现更优

算法交易依赖机器学习模型做决策,但现有模型在面对宏观经济变化导致的市场机制突变时性能显著下降。本文指出两大问题:一是策略对高层级市场波动的鲁棒性不足;二是缺乏真实且多样的训练环境,导致过拟合。为此提出贝叶斯稳健框架,将宏观条件控制的生成模型与稳健策略学习相结合。数据侧采用基于GAN的宏观条件生成器,以宏观经济指标为控制变量,生成具有时间、跨资产和宏观相关性的合成数据。策略侧将交易过程建模为双人零和贝叶斯马尔可夫博弈,对抗性代理通过扰动宏观指标模拟市场机制变迁,交易代理则通过分位数信念网络更新对隐藏市场状态的信念,采用贝叶斯神经虚构自玩法寻求鲁棒完美贝叶斯均衡,在对抗扰动下实现稳定学习。在9种金融工具上的实验表明,本方法优于9个最先进基线。在新冠疫情等极端事件中,仍表现出更高的盈利性和风险控制能力,为不确定且动态变化的市场提供可靠交易方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Algorithmic trading relies on machine learning models to make trading decisions. Despite strong in-sample performance, these models often degrade when confronted with evolving real-world market regimes, which can shift dramatically due to macroeconomic changes-e.g., monetary policy updates or unanticipated fluctuations in participant behavior. We identify two challenges that perpetuate this mismatch: (1) insufficient robustness in existing policy against uncertainties in high-level market fluctuations, and (2) the absence of a realistic and diverse simulation environment for training, leading to policy overfitting. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian Robust Framework that systematically integrates a macro-conditioned generative model with robust policy learning. On the data side, to generate realistic and diverse data, we propose a macro-conditioned GAN-based generator that leverages macroeconomic indicators as primary control variables, synthesizing data with faithful temporal, cross-instrument, and macro correlations. On the policy side, to learn robust policy against market fluctuations, we cast the trading process as a two-player zero-sum Bayesian Markov game, wherein an adversarial agent simulates shifting regimes by perturbing macroeconomic indicators in the macro-conditioned generator, while the trading agent-guided by a quantile belief network-maintains and updates its belief over hidden market states. The trading agent seeks a Robust Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium via Bayesian neural fictitious self-play, stabilizing learning under adversarial market perturbations. Extensive experiments on 9 financial instruments demonstrate that our framework outperforms 9 state-of-the-art baselines. In extreme events like the COVID, our method shows improved profitability and risk management, offering a reliable solution for trading under uncertain and shifting market dynamics.

算法交易生成模型贝叶斯学习市场鲁棒性

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