用强化学习优化城市交通百年防洪投资,兼顾成本与韧性。
Learning long term climate-resilient transport adaptation pathways under direct and indirect flood impacts using reinforcement learning
- 结合气候模型与强化学习,动态生成长期适应策略
- 2100年前投资路径使交通系统韧性显著优于不作为或随机决策
- 适用于其他城市和极端天气场景,支持跨部门协同规划
气候变化预计加剧降雨等灾害,导致城市交通系统中断。由于基础设施投资具有长期性、序列性、深层不确定性及跨部门复杂交互,设计有效适应策略极具挑战。本文提出一个通用决策支持框架,将集成评估模型(IAM)与强化学习(RL)结合,学习在不确定性下多十年的投资适应路径。该框架融合长期气候预测(如IPCC情景路径)、极端天气驱动因素(如降雨)转化为灾害概率(如洪水)、灾害对城市基础设施影响(如交通中断),并量化直接与间接后果对服务性能和社会成本的影响。嵌入强化学习循环中,学习权衡投资维护支出与避免损失的自适应适应策略。与哥本哈根市政合作,以2024至2100年市区内涝为案例验证,所学策略生成协调的空间-时间投资路径,相较传统基准(不作为、随机行动)显著提升鲁棒性,展示框架向其他灾害与城市的可迁移性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Climate change is expected to intensify rainfall and other hazards, increasing disruptions in urban transportation systems. Designing effective adaptation strategies is challenging due to the long-term, sequential nature of infrastructure investments, deep uncertainty, and complex cross-sector interactions. We propose a generic decision-support framework that couples an integrated assessment model (IAM) with reinforcement learning (RL) to learn adaptive, multi-decade investment pathways under uncertainty. The framework combines long-term climate projections (e.g., IPCC scenario pathways) with models that map projected extreme-weather drivers (e.g. rain) into hazard likelihoods (e.g. flooding), propagate hazards into urban infrastructure impacts (e.g. transport disruption), and value direct and indirect consequences for service performance and societal costs. Embedded in a reinforcement-learning loop, it learns adaptive climate adaptation policies that trade off investment and maintenance expenditures against avoided impacts. In collaboration with Copenhagen Municipality, we demonstrate the approach on pluvial flooding in the inner city for the horizon of 2024 to 2100. The learned strategies yield coordinated spatial-temporal pathways and improved robustness relative to conventional optimization baselines, namely inaction and random action, illustrating the framework's transferability to other hazards and cities.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。