arXiv:2601.19296cs.LG2026-01

融合流程事件与静态属性,提升造船厂管件采购周期预测精度。

Process-Aware Procurement Lead Time Prediction for Shipyard Delay Mitigation

  • 用事件日志捕捉采购流程的时间动态性,结合管件静态特征建模。
  • 相比现有方法,预测误差降低22.6%至50.4%,在三类任务中均显著提升。
  • 适合关注制造延迟控制与流程数字化的船舶工程从业者。

在船厂等按订单设计的行业中,准确预测采购前置时间(PLT)仍具挑战性,单一关键部件的延误可能引发项目整体延期。管件是船厂核心组件,安装于钢板搭建后不久,其采购延迟会直接阻断后续所有任务。现有研究仅依赖管件的静态物理属性进行预测,但采购本质上是涉及内外部多方参与的动态流程,传统方法忽略此过程特性。本文提出一种新框架,结合采购事件日志与静态属性数据,提取每项事件的时间特征以反映流程连续性与上下文。随后采用深度序列神经网络与多层感知机融合静态与动态特征,同时捕捉结构与情境信息。基于一家全球知名韩国造船企业的真实管件采购数据开展对比实验,评估生产、后处理及采购前置时间预测三个任务。结果表明,相较最优现有方法,平均绝对误差降低22.6%至50.4%,验证了纳入流程信息对提升预测精度的价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately predicting procurement lead time (PLT) remains a challenge in engineered-to-order industries such as shipbuilding and plant construction, where delays in a single key component can disrupt project timelines. In shipyards, pipe spools are critical components; installed deep within hull blocks soon after steel erection, any delay in their procurement can halt all downstream tasks. Recognizing their importance, existing studies predict PLT using the static physical attributes of pipe spools. However, procurement is inherently a dynamic, multi-stakeholder business process involving a continuous sequence of internal and external events at the shipyard, factors often overlooked in traditional approaches. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel framework that combines event logs, dataset records of the procurement events, with static attributes to predict PLT. The temporal attributes of each event are extracted to reflect the continuity and temporal context of the process. Subsequently, a deep sequential neural network combined with a multi-layered perceptron is employed to integrate these static and dynamic features, enabling the model to capture both structural and contextual information in procurement. Comparative experiments are conducted using real-world pipe spool procurement data from a globally renowned South Korean shipbuilding corporation. Three tasks are evaluated, which are production, post-processing, and procurement lead time prediction. The results show a 22.6% to 50.4% improvement in prediction performance in terms of mean absolute error over the best-performing existing approaches across the three tasks. These findings indicate the value of considering procurement process information for more accurate PLT prediction.

采购预测流程挖掘造船工程

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