arXiv:2601.19674cs.LGcs.AI2026-01

用气象聚类实现跨海域风电预测,新电站仅需5个月数据即可精准预测。

Cross-Domain Offshore Wind Power Forecasting: Transfer Learning Through Meteorological Clusters

  • 按气象特征聚类发电数据,用专家模型集成提升迁移效率。
  • 仅用不足5个月本地数据,预测误差MAE达3.52%,无需全年数据。
  • 适合新风电场快速部署,也适用于资源评估与风险控制。

为实现碳中和目标,海上风电装机迅速增加。新投产风电场需从一开始就具备准确的发电预测能力,以保障电网稳定、优化备用管理并高效参与能源交易。尽管机器学习模型表现优异,但通常需要大量特定站点数据,而新电厂尚无此类数据。为此,本文提出一种新颖的迁移学习框架:根据协变量气象特征对发电量进行聚类,不训练单一通用模型,而是采用一组针对不同天气模式的专家模型进行预测。这些预训练模型专精于特定气候模式,能高效适应新站点,捕捉可迁移的气候依赖动态。本研究贡献有二:提出该框架,并在8个海上风电场进行全面评估,证明仅需不足5个月的站点数据即可实现高精度跨域预测,达到3.52%的平均绝对误差(MAE)。实验证明,可靠预测不必依赖完整年度数据。该方法不仅适用于发电预测,还可拓展至早期风资源评估等场景,显著降低数据需求,加速项目开发并有效控制风险。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Ambitious decarbonisation targets are rapidly increasing the commission of new offshore wind farms. For these newly commissioned plants to run, accurate power forecasts are needed from the onset. These allow grid stability, good reserve management and efficient energy trading. Despite machine learning models having strong performances, they tend to require large volumes of site-specific data that new farms do not yet have. To overcome this data scarcity, we propose a novel transfer learning framework that clusters power output according to covariate meteorological features. Rather than training a single, general-purpose model, we thus forecast with an ensemble of expert models, each trained on a cluster. As these pre-trained models each specialise in a distinct weather pattern, they adapt efficiently to new sites and capture transferable, climate-dependent dynamics. Our contributions are two-fold - we propose this novel framework and comprehensively evaluate it on eight offshore wind farms, achieving accurate cross-domain forecasting with under five months of site-specific data. Our experiments achieve a MAE of 3.52\%, providing empirical verification that reliable forecasts do not require a full annual cycle. Beyond power forecasting, this climate-aware transfer learning method opens new opportunities for offshore wind applications such as early-stage wind resource assessment, where reducing data requirements can significantly accelerate project development whilst effectively mitigating its inherent risks.

风电预测迁移学习气象聚类数据稀缺

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