不重训练,用轻量后处理提升时间序列预测精度与可信度
The Forecast After the Forecast: A Post-Processing Shift in Time Series
- 通过输入微调和输出残差修正,无侵入式增强已部署模型
- 在多个数据集上提升预测准确率,且不确定性校准达有限样本覆盖
- 适合生产环境快速优化,兼顾精度、可解释性与置信区间可靠性
时间序列预测长期依赖模型架构进步,但当前深度学习与混合统计方法已逼近精度瓶颈。本文聚焦预测的‘最后一公里’——在不重新训练或修改已部署主干模型的前提下,通过后处理提升准确性与不确定性估计。提出 δ-Adapter,一种轻量、架构无关的后处理方法,通过在输入端(软调整协变量)与输出端(残差修正)学习微小、有界模块实现改进。该方法具备局部下降保证、O(δ)漂移界及组合稳定性。同时可作为特征选择器,学习稀疏、时序感知的掩码以识别关键特征,增强可解释性;还可作为分布校准器,结合分位数校准器与顺应校正器,提供有限样本覆盖的个性化置信区间。跨多种主干模型与数据集的实验表明,δ-Adapter 在计算开销极低的情况下显著提升精度与校准效果,无需接口变更。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting has long been dominated by advances in model architecture, with recent progress driven by deep learning and hybrid statistical techniques. However, as forecasting models approach diminishing returns in accuracy, a critical yet underexplored opportunity emerges: the strategic use of post-processing. In this paper, we address the last-mile gap in time-series forecasting, which is to improve accuracy and uncertainty without retraining or modifying a deployed backbone. We propose $δ$-Adapter, a lightweight, architecture-agnostic way to boost deployed time series forecasters without retraining. $δ$-Adapter learns tiny, bounded modules at two interfaces: input nudging (soft edits to covariates) and output residual correction. We provide local descent guarantees, $O(δ)$ drift bounds, and compositional stability for combined adapters. Meanwhile, it can act as a feature selector by learning a sparse, horizon-aware mask over inputs to select important features, thereby improving interpretability. In addition, it can also be used as a distribution calibrator to measure uncertainty. Thus, we introduce a Quantile Calibrator and a Conformal Corrector that together deliver calibrated, personalized intervals with finite-sample coverage. Our experiments across diverse backbones and datasets show that $δ$-Adapter improves accuracy and calibration with negligible compute and no interface changes.
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